- It would be necessary to have the list of past predictions from UBS for this figure to have any meaning. Otherwise you fall into the trap of "Economists successfully predicted 10 of the last 4 recessions".
by toomuchtodo
0 subcomment
- https://archive.today/zIjRL
https://fortune.com/2025/09/02/recession-probability-93-perc... | https://archive.today/AYnNH
by 0cf8612b2e1e
3 subcomments
- Let’s say, I know recession begins (whatever that means) in exactly 60 days. What are the financially savvy moves to make free money?
Given this bonkers market, even if 100% of the world recognized the US was in recession, I am not sure what you can predict would happen.
by Atomic_Torrfisk
0 subcomment
- > UBS notes that it is not yet forecasting a recession at this time, but anticipates an extended phase of stagnant economic growth. Its own "credit metrics-based" recession probability, Fortune writes, has roughly doubled to 41 percent since January.
What is the point in a discussion if no one reads the actual article?
by throwmeaway222
0 subcomment
- "the hard data"
Then perhaps they can just make a program that emits the exact probability at any time - and emit a chart like polymarket's
more likely bias.
by jackallis
1 subcomments
- based on this https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME we are nowhere close.
by kirito1337
0 subcomment
- wow tell us something we didnt know
- polymarket says 8%
https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025
by Bombthecat
0 subcomment
- Bears are getting desperate and wishing for a recession,eh?
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