The main points emerging from the combined simulation and experimental study on atmospheric entry of the paper plane are: • Orbit: The paper space plane de-orbits from LEO extremely quickly due to its very low ballistic coefficient. Atmospheric entry from a 400 km circular orbit occurs within a few days. • Attitude: In the free-molecular portion of atmospheric entry, above ∼120 km altitude, the paper space plane maintains a stable flow-pointing attitude. Small-amplitude oscillations occur in pitch and yaw. Although the coupled simulator is not designed for application at lower altitudes, the results suggest the onset of uncontrollable tumbling at ∼120 km altitude. • Heating: Based on the hypersonic wind tunnel test results and simulation, surface forces acting on the space plane during atmospheric entry are not expected to cause significant deformation. However, the paper space plane experiences severe aerodynamic heating in the order of 105 W/m2 (or 10 W/cm2 ) for several minutes. Accordingly, combustion or pyrolysis is expected during atmospheric entry

Original paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009457652...

I thought atmospheric effects were much lower at that altitude, but apparently even the ISS loses about 3km every month (enough to deorbit in ~15 months).[1]

The ballistic coefficient of the ISS is a whopping >500 times greater than the plane so the plane drops really fast.

[1]: https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/9482/how-long-woul...

My gut feeling tells me the paper plane doesn't have enough mass to "power through" the thickening atmosphere with enough force to substantially heat up.

Also, if it starts tumbling or not is not very relevant, it's still flying. Surely it could recover at some point, maybe at low altitude with higher air pressure and random turbulences.

My naive impression is that this would not be possible. I would expect that a very light object with large sail area would be driven so easily by air flow that it would experience negligible heating from friction. What is the physical reasoning behind thinking it could burn up?

So, paper is out, but maybe glass would work ok :)

It’s getting even more interesting if the plane was made out of titanium. It would orbit for years potentially before having a 30-40% of surviving reentry. It’s fascinating sometimes physics is the opposite of what you think intuitively. You’d think heavier metals would orbit for less time than a paper airplane. Ballistic coefficients are the key.