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Europe is locking itself in to US LNG

147 points by hunglee2

by Anonyneko

3 subcomments

I don't know when Europe managed to "escape Russian energy dependence" as it still seems to be buying tremendous amounts of Russian fossil fuels that are now branded as Turkish, Indian, Azeri, the list goes on.

by neves

5 subcomments

Wasn't it the point of Nord Stream sabotage? https://brian-whit.medium.com/nord-stream-sabotage-a-look-at...

by probablypower

7 subcomments

There are a lot of posts here pushing batteries.
Batteries are an expensive solution that doesn't scale well at the grid level. It is useful for grid stability (fast frequency response) but simply a non-starter when you're dealing with national grids.
Batteries are an added cost to the system, without producing more electricity, and as a result prices will go up.
A far cheaper source of flexibility is Demand Side Response. Particularly data centres that are willing to be market actors. Compute can happen anywhere, so it should happen where the wind blows and the sun shines. It is cheaper to transmit bits than Megawatts.

by comrade1234

1 subcomments

I don't think the "EU" buys fuel. It's individual countries. The promise by the EU to buy LNG was empty. What country is going to buy it?

by p2detar

3 subcomments

Weren't there discussions to start buying LNG from Canada as well? In fact even Carney spoke about that if I remember correctly.

by jillesvangurp

1 subcomments

At the relatively high cost US LNG gets imported, it creates a big incentive to start considering alternatives. A lot of the investment commitments will probably never be delivered. Fundamentally, a lot of states in the EU will have to sell this to their voters and tax payers and that's where this stuff will slowly die. Because it's a hard sell.
LNG imports will be demand driven, not supply driven. And demand is going to decrease over time; not increase. That calls into question the need for more infrastructure. On both sides. Germany already topped up its reserves for the coming winter; ahead of schedule. There is no shortage.
The US is building a big LNG bubble with investments that might end up under water. What happens if demand flattens and decreases mid to long term, as can reasonably be expected at this point? Can the US sustain high LNG prices when cheaper sources become available? What will high export prices do for domestic pricing for energy? How eager will investors be to make big multi decade investments in this (given all this)?
The existing terminals are underutilized already (below 50%). It's hard to see where all this extra demand to fill even more terminals is going to come from. There is no urgency for any of this on the EU side.
However there is quite a bit of urgency on lowering energy prices for industry and consumers. LNG is not the way to do that. I don't see that changing.

by amai

0 subcomment

Wat? Most of European countries buy gas from Norway, Algeria and other countries. The US share is just 16.5 %. That is not really a lock in. That is just diversification.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/where-does-t...

by seatac76

0 subcomment

https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/15/trump-trade-deal-europe...
A good article on the energy politics between US and EU.

by meindnoch

1 subcomments

We just need to wait out the inevitable collapse and breakup of Russia, then we can go in and scoop up the energy resources. This time it has to be a more hands-on approach, to not repeat the same mistake that we made at the end of the Cold War.

by willsmith72

1 subcomments

It's clear to all parties that this is a false promise made to appease Trump.
The question is how deep they'll have to go in 3 years. Can they stall it out, or will the US actually demand they fulfill the promise, causing at least some amount of lock-in?

by seydor

0 subcomment

Completely unsustainable position

by floppiplopp

0 subcomment

"Let's not buy from Russia, it's an overt dictatorship lazily cosplaying as a democracy that's waging wars on other nations and killing innocent civilians."

by jsnider3

5 subcomments

Renewables solves this.

by mytailorisrich

8 subcomments

Another level of irony is that this is partly because Europe does not want to develop shale gas for environmental reasons, so it imports US LNG... which is mostly shale gas [1].
The US love Europe's policies...
[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/surging-us-lng-expor...

by jmclnx

2 subcomments

With a "normal" US Admin, I doubt this would be a concern. With this current regime, it could be risky. I could see Trump having a fit and if he realizes the EU needs US LNG, he could cut the supply or put a huge tax on it.
But if that happens, maybe the US Fossil Fuel "Cartel" will revolt. I think the EU really need to accelerate their renewal push even more. From what I read they are doing good w/renewals, but I would be nervous if I was in the EU until renewals and/or nuclear power provides 90% of the power.

by joemaniaci

1 subcomments

As an American how stupid do you have to be to promise $750B for fossil fuel infrastructure instead of say, grid tied battery infrastructure. Europe is weaning themselves off of fossil fuels so quickly(relatively).
And to lock yourself in with the Trump admin.

by codyb

1 subcomments

Judging by the way the US is going... are they just gonna lock themselves in to their next adversary's fuel?
At least we were an ally at the start of this of this trend

by cantor_S_drug

1 subcomments

I don't understand economics that much or how money works. But is the following possible in a clandestine manner?
US and EU provide each other money through swaplines by printing freshly created respective currencies and exchanging them.
Then EU can use those dollars to buy US LNG.
Is this a far fetched idea? This is like undercover QE.

by Workaccount2

6 subcomments

Europeans need to wake up.
There is an obvious rift between Europeans, European leaders, and the US. Europeans seem tired of the US and it's policies, however simultaneously are unaware that the cushy "European" lifestyle they love only exists because of the US. Which is something that European leaders are keenly aware of.
So it creates a situation where the leadership will constantly bend at the knee to the US's demands, and the populace will get progressively more and more anti-US. However in it's current state, Europe is stuck under the thumb of the US on three sides - tech, military, and energy.
The only "clean" way to rectify this problem is for Europeans to slash regulations, slash social programs, and dramatically increase annual working hours. All things which are the antithesis of contemporary Europeans ideals. Europe desperately needs a modern industry hub, right now it's all US and China on the board.