by walterbell
1 subcomments
- https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chip-crunch-how-ai-boom-...
> spot prices of DRAM, used in various applications, nearly tripled in September from a year earlier.. improving profitability of non-HBM chips has helped fuel memory chipmakers' share price rally this year, with Samsung's stock up more than 80%, while SK Hynix and Micron shares have soared 170% and 140% respectively... industry is going through a classic shortage that usually lasts a year or two, and TechInsights is forecasting a chip industry downturn in 2027.
Micron has US memory semiconductor fab capacity coming online in 2027 through 2040s, based on $150B new construction.
Are some HBM chips idle due to lack of electrical power? https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-has-ai-...
> Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has said the company has AI GPUs sitting idle because it doesn’t have enough power to install them.
If the PC supply chain will be impacted by memory shortages until 2027, could Windows 10 security support be extended for 24 months to extend the life of millions of business PCs that cannot run Windows 11?
- Hopefully this will put pressure on the market to produce much more efficient AI models. As opposed to bigger, then bigger, and then even BIGGER models (which is the current trend).
FYI: gpt-oss:120b is better at coding (in benchmarks and my own anecdotal testing) than gpt5-mini. More importantly, it's so much faster too. We need more of this kind of optimization. Note that gpt5-mini is estimated to be around ~150 billion parameters.
- I hope this AI craze will crash soon enough. Maybe then various things normalize in price again. And consumers get cheaper products with less limitations.
- Desktop memory has also increased in price. I think it’s twice as expensive for DDR5 than it was 6 months ago.
- This shortage is the best thing that could have happened for R&D in model efficiency. The "who has more parameters" race is about to hit the physical wall of hardware availability. Now the real race for efficiency begins: quantization, distillation, Mixture-of-Experts, new architectures
Hardware constraints are the single biggest driver of software innovation
by tuhgdetzhh
1 subcomments
- I bet some are already buying the highest capacatiy DDR5 DIMMs in bulk to later put them on eBay in the upcoming major DRAM shortage.
- It feels like we're actually living in the Universal Paperclips universe.
- Down stream this is driving up DDR4 demand as well :(
- Have we given up on edge AI this early?
by nubinetwork
0 subcomment
- Not just server memory, desktop memory has gone up for the same reason... it's all going to AI. Forget building a new gaming pc, or buying a laptop, or even an arm SBC, because the supply is just gone.
by dist-epoch
0 subcomment
- > OpenAI's Stargate project to consume up to 40% of global DRAM output
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/openais-star...
> South Korean SK Hynix has exhausted all of its chip
production for next year and plans to significantly increase investment, anticipating a prolonged "super cycle" of chips, spurred by the boom of artificial intelligence, it said on Wednesday after reporting a record quarterly profit.
https://en.ilsole24ore.com/art/korean-chip-race-sk-hynix-has...
> Adata chairman says AI datacenters are gobbling up hard drives, SSDs, and DRAM alike — insatiable upstream demand could soon lead to consumer shortages
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/big-tech/adata-ch...
by HPsquared
2 subcomments
- Has the death of Moore's Law been officially announced yet?
by flamesofphx
0 subcomment
- I wonder if they old movie lawn mower man is going to become a reference for AI... They might need a dam...
- Maybe I can push for some HBM systems now
by Thev00d00
1 subcomments
- Prime time to build an AM4 system!
- Server DRAM? More like all DRAM.
by sleepyguy
3 subcomments
- Manufacturers learned a valuable lesson a few years ago: overproduction leads to lower prices. Samsung was the first to address this issue by scaling back, and other manufacturers soon followed suit (collusion, cough cough). The past couple of years have been extremely profitable for the entire industry, and they’re not about to increase production and risk hurting their profits.
I suspect they would rather face shortages then satisfy market demand.
- Regular Monopoly/Duopoly like the storage market or Nepopoly like the GPU market?
Either way, without competition expect it to increase further.
- To be fair, RAM was way too cheap. I got 128GB for a laptop for 300eur. That's ridiculous. Now it's much more reasonable 720 eur (and sold out)
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