- It's rough out there and has become increasingly difficult to maintain our pace of storage deployment.
Further - and most concerning - is the pollution of the supply chain with refurbished/recertified stock being sold and marketed as "new".
One example:
https://kozubik.com/items/MaestroTechnology/
I strongly advise buyers to stick with trusted suppliers, avoid Amazon/ebay channels, and carefully vet your incoming stock with SMART tools to ensure you receive what you think you are ... especially for SSD parts.
by walterbell
1 subcomments
- "OMEC" (Organization of Memory Exporting Countries) NAND production quotas?
https://x.com/jukanlosreve/status/1988505115339436423
Samsung Electronics has lowered its target for NAND wafer output this year to around 4.72 million sheets, about 7% down from the previous year's 5.07 million. Kioxia also adjusted its output from 4.80 million last year to 4.69 million this year.. SK hynix and Micron are likewise keeping output conservatively constrained in a bid to benefit from higher prices. SK hynix's NAND output fell about 10%, from 2.01 million sheets last year to around 1.80 million this year. Micron's situation is similar: it is maintaining production at Fab 7 in Singapore—its largest NAND production base—in the low 300,000-sheet range, keeping a conservative supply posture.
Micron has a new US fab coming online in 2027, which should improve supply.DRAM price fixing scandal: 1998-2002, 2016-2018, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal
- This is getting out of control. Like a monster eating off all the things that are needed for normal people. Worse than nukes race, which at least did not affect common man. No one really gains anything. All gains are temporary competitive edge, that vanishes quickly while locking everyone into the vicious cycle.
- So far, due to the AI boom, we're lacking:
* HDDs
* SSDs
* DRAM
* GPUs, obviously
* Power to hook up to our datacenters
Anything I'm missing? What a crazy world we're living in.
- During 1998-2000, AOL was ordering so many free trial CDs that it locked up world production, and music CDs faced 8-12 week delays. It was rumored that certain weeks there were no albums getting fabricated at all, worldwide.
I wonder if history isn’t repeating itself. AOL CDs had pretty much jumped the shark by 2000.
by evanjrowley
0 subcomment
- The future of AI is everything we liked getting ruined by AI.
by AxiomaticSpace
0 subcomment
- Huh, so that's why openai has been asking to use my local disk.
by IAmGraydon
1 subcomments
- I built a computer December 2024 with a Ryzen 9900X, 64GB DDR5, 1TB + 4TB SSDs, 4060. If I were to buy the exact same parts now, nearly 1 year later, it would cost about $1,000 more for the exact same components. The memory alone went from $189 to $505. I'm not sure how much of that is from tariffs and how much is due to AI datacenter demand, but that is a massive increase.
- I just got 2 16TB drives for $90 each off Craigslist. Perfect for video game storage or downloading huge AI models or whatever. Or legit Linux ISOs. Wish I got more but I was too late. Can't find anything close to that price online
- >Picking QLC over TLC allows them to maintain costs while achieving sufficient endurance for cold storage.
How does that work, doesn't QLC have less write endurance?
by whynotmaybe
1 subcomments
- Hunger sharpens ingenuity.
Soon we'll see many "AI" product that analyses network storage to identify files that could be deleted because they're the nth copy of some random report that was never published.
by karlkloss
4 subcomments
- And when the AI bubble bursts, "refurbished" HDDs and GPUs will flood the market.
Save your money now and be prepared.
by mschuster91
1 subcomments
- So, it's Chia all over again? [1]
Sometimes, I think government supply control isn't that much of a bad thing. That way, the government could force the availability of goods for the common market as well and not just for the really big dogs flush with ample VC money to burn who can pay any price.
[1] For the uninitiated: a cryptocurrency where the limiting factor wasn't CPU, RAM or GPU compute resource, but storage - in 2021, there was so much craze around it that HDD and SSD prices exploded, and after the bubble collapsed a lot of heavily abused drives flooded the markets.
by margalabargala
4 subcomments
- This is a long term good thing.
It sucks right now and will probably suck through 2027.
By 2028 or so we'll have a 50% drop in price-per-storage for these components.
- Too bad both storage and video cards will be unsafe to buy used when the bubble bursts.
Maybe another round of cheap Aerons at least :)
- I've been in the industry since 1985. There have always been boom and bust cycles with the basic components. It's the nature of the thing: very costly factories that take many years to bring online. Plus normal business cycles that tend to align with the US election cycle.
- I really hope the AI bubble bursts sooner rather than later. Sooner will impact the broad economy less severely (although it'll still be pretty bad) and curtail these supply chain shortages. If the bubble keeps inflating, the storage makers will have already mostly built out excess capacity and the crash will lead to even longer-term supply distortion.
- Thank god I built my NAS in early October it seems like I got the proverbial last train out of town.
by mock-possum
1 subcomments
- > delivery times for enterprise-grade HDDs delayed by two years.
I sleep
> so hyperscalers are now switching to QLC NAND-based SSDs to avoid these backorders … This could lead to SSD prices rising worldwide
Real shit
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