- Surface naval assets are extremely vulnerable to drones, so a blockade probably can't be maintained

- a marine assault will get utterly obliterated by drones as well as conventional military defenses

- urban warfare with drones is now even more difficult

- wars like this expose governmental corruption on a massive scale, so the mainland military won't want it to happen

- the Malacca Straits will be blockaded by a deep water navy (ours) that can't be reached by Ukraine-style drones, so China's economy collapses without oil for fertilizer, energy, and transportation