Starting point: In 1965, the most advanced chips contained roughly 50 to 100 transistors (e.g., early integrated logic).

Lets take 1965 -> 2025, which is 60 years.

Number of doubling intervals: 60 years / 2 years per doubling = 30 doublings

So the theoretical prediction is:

Transistors in 2025 (predicted) = 100 × 2^30 ≈ 107 billion transistors

The Apple M1 Ultra has 114 billion transistors.

The TPUv4 and TPUv6 docs were stolen by a Chinese national in 2022/2023: https://www.cyberhaven.com/blog/lessons-learned-from-the-goo... https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/superseding-indictment-charge...

And that's just 1 guy that got caught. Who knows how many other cases were there.

A Chinese startup is already making clusters of TPUs and has revenue https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3334244/ai-start-...