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Hacker News Hacker NewsLater, LLMs will be portrayed as something evil, yet everyone will still use them. Parents will use them, while telling their kinds not to do so.
Leetcode is already standard for SWE interviews, but other industries will need to adopt similar tests to verify that an applicant's brain is functioning correctly and that they're capable of doing the job. Maybe a formal confirmation from a psychologist specializing in 'fried brains' will be required.
AI stays the top story but in a boring way as novelty wears off and models get cheaper and faster (maybe even more embedded). No AGI moment. LLMs start feeling like databases or cloud compute.
No SpaceX or OpenAI IPO moment. Capital markets quietly reward the boring winners instead. S&P 500 grinds out another double digit year, mostly because earnings keep up and alternatives still look worse. Tech discourse stays apocalyptic, but balance sheets don't.
If you mute politics and social media noise, 2026 probably looks like one of those years that we later remember as "stable" in retrospect.
Bonus: Bitcoin sees both 50k and 150k.
- 2025: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42490343
- 2024: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115
- 2023: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628
- 2022: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236
- 2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068
- 2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596
- 2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859
- 2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988
- 2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767
- 2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723
- 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370
- 2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201
- 2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023
I really feel "web dev" is going to get highly commoditized by GenAI, by web dev I mean 99% of building CRUD-adjacent apps, we are already seeing it now with tools like Claude Code etc, this pipeline is just going to get more refined, with tigther testing feedback loops, PR-workflows and a CI/CD deployment pipeline which the GenAI will control. This might be amplified by the fact the sheer amount of tested, high quality there is in the JavaScript-ecosystem for the AI to train on and learn from.
Software engineering in general will tend more systems and embedded software, fields where GenAI can't perform well or can't be trusted to produce good code (I am thinking writing device drivers, or maintainence of legacy C applications) as well as deep research fields. The average software engineering job might be either that of a "technical product manager", or "researcher" or "low-level systems expert"
That's just what I feel. Honestly, I am probably much younger an others on this forum, so I haven't really seen this industry "evolve" this is just how it looks to me now. I believe there was a time in the early 2010s where there was a boom of this "generalist developer" where if you knew your JavaScript-ecosystem (or App Dev ecosystem for that matter) pretty well, you could land a pretty decent job right out of college, or without a college degree at all.
To me, at this stage the world in general needs software engineers who understand the "world" if that makes sense (in terms of physics, mathematics), or who have a really good mental model of computation. Better put, software engineering will become a tool in the larger context of research & development of tech that advance humanity.
I'm keeping that prediction for 2026 from a late 2024 thread:
Zelensky will be replaced as Ukraine's leader and Ukraine as a whole will switch back to Russian control, moving the new front line to other former Soviet states and Poland. Also, all of the weapons provided to Ukraine will begin pointing at Europe instead of Russia
China will begin blockading the islands around Taiwan, leading to a blockade of Taiwan itself. Odds are there will be a peaceful reunification with China instead of a war.
Maduro will be overthrown in Venezuela and is all being used as leverage by the U.S. in its negotiations with China and Russia
The GOP will retain control over the House in the upcoming Midterms
A large labor reduction in many high paying jobs, such as tech, due to higher productivity provided by AI. In normal times, this would cause a kind of deflation to balance everything out. Due to the pending economic crisis, the Govt will spend even more money to try to maintain the current system, leading to more inflation.
The cost to service the current debt will be used to justify a large reduction in Federal Govt agencies and services.
The Atlas comet will not be an alien spacecraft
The public will learn more about the extensive surveillance state and be less approving of it.
The Epstein files will be a big nothing burger.
- Unabated push towards 'Snow Crash' level of extremely localized power structures at the expense of federal government ( think K shaped economy, but for governmental structures ) - Actual further descent into K shaped economy -- that.. I fear.. is a very safe prediction to make now - Midterms will see some localized polically motivated violence ( likely across the spectrum bar some pressura valve release ) - Shadow wars will continue - Bitcoin will crash; monero will replace it as dollar falls - Companies and government will desperately work together to contains severely distributed ASI level entity that exists as hidden braille invisible characters across all known fora - I manage to to move to full WFH - Valve releases HL3 on Frame - Fusion power will get closer by two kiloseconds
1. Bazel is still not widely used outside of massive monorepos. (because its such a pain to use)
2. Solar power will surpass wind power in the US to become the 4th largest source of electricity. https://eia.languagelatte.com/
3. Starship begins launching real payloads, achieves reusability of the upper stage, and successfully does a ship to ship fuel transfer.
4. Tesla stock has a major correction (>20%) as it becomes increasingly clear that Waymo, Zoox, AVRide, and various Chinese companies are significantly ahead in AV technology. And as it becomes clear that Optimus is a sham.
- AI will innovate towards visuals, personality, and tool use. AI tool use will start to innovate past just reading docs, maybe into more things like gaming and robotics.
- Some AI products (not necessarily LLMs) will start competing on latency. Notably on voice/calls, but also things like drones, robotics, etc.
Maybe too obvious but more and more interesting new robots will hit the market and robotics as space will become considerably legible.
Probably going to start to understand how different types of models scaled capabilities will play off of each other when architected together (MOE+).
Non-tech people are going to start having the model welfare conversation more generally.
2. Some kind of extreme US constitutional crisis.
3. Putin will remain in power, but Russia will be struggling dramatically to keep funding the war as Ukrainian attacks keep chipping away at oil and gas exports.
4. At least one new major AI breakthrough.
5. Several more countries virtually collapse
- Major breakthroughs in robotics research thanks to ultra scalable simulation software and RL
- AI will become even more useful in daily life
- New drug discoveries or successful stage 3 clinical studies related to / similar to GLP-1. Also in longevity research.
- Renewables will get even cheaper
- Creators will thrive with all the new AI tooling
- Government services will become more digital (at least in Germany)
- The war between Ukraine and Russia will end
- Interest rates continue to fall, causing an uptick in housing buildup
- The EU finally takes a harder stance against uncontrolled migration with concrete measures that will bring numbers far down.
Negatives:
- Societal loneliness will continue to accelerate
- People will use their brains even less, thanks to more widespread LLM use
- the Nazi party in Germany will become the majority in two states (but won't be able to govern them)
If they go down the route of automating as much as possible, it'll destroy the social pipelines that allow companies to reproduce themselves.
I don't think that'll actually happen, but it'll be interesting to watch
Flock and other government tools for watching and controlling you will expand.
Big companies will expand their regulatory capture, especially in medical care. Fingers will continue to be pointed at health insurance as the problem while the real problem of an artificially limited supply of doctors goes unaddressed.
Government agencies will continue their slow bloat as no mechanism exists for government like bankruptcy in the private sector.
Patent trolls will expand their lawsuits and extort more legitimate businesses.
The far left will assassinate more Republican leaders.
- Current LLMs being seen more and more like commodities
- We'll start see a LOT more companies making their own LLM
- Capital stops pretending everything is fine & we finally see the stock market reflect what's been slowly bubbling up socially (people 'feeling poorer', trust declining, consumption becoming more cynical)
Its already happening but I believe it will accelerate in 2026 especially with the Fed turning the money-printers back on. Inflation is sure to increase :-/
Grow a garden everyone. Just do it.
My 2026 prediction is that people will continue running websites and buiding web apps that need monitoring, more than ever before.
The US stock market will see a correction (and possibly a crash) due to it being generally overvalued, LLM advances unproven for most enterprise contexts, and premature investment in infrastructure. Other stock markets will be dragged down because everything is correlated these days.
Building software continues being commoditized, putting downward pressure on salaries. Software quality diminishes due to prioritizing speed and using LLM output.
Billionaires continue taking control of media companies and continuing using them to influence public thought and discourse. Big budget media production companies show no signs of newfound creativity or risk taking and continues producing remakes, sequels and prequels within existing franchises.
Many people have further diminishing mental health due to a severe value crisis and lack of human connection.
The neurological, cardiovascular and long-term consequences of repeated SARS-CoV-2 infections become better known and understood. But nothing is done to prevent further damage.
* Oral GLP-1s hit the market and the market shares doubles
* Both OpenAI and SpaceX IPO
* Charlie Kirk's shooter will be executed after being on death row for less than a year. 50/50 chance that it's televised.
* Luigi is also executed
* Seattle causes an international incident with Egypt and Iran when they don't reschedule the Pride Parade to not be on the same day as the world cup game. Trump sends in the troops.
- Multiple interest rate cuts instead of 1
- News about prosecutions for insider trading on Polymarket.
- Bitcoin will touch a multi-year low. MSTR becomes insolvent.
- Google Gemini will overtake ChatGPT in DAU.
- Software will be more commoditized and the authors’ “taste” will become its primary differentiator.
- Fiserv will increase 50% or more in market cap (I said the same thing last year about PayPal, and I was wrong)
- Warren Buffett will pass away. (I hope I’m wrong) :-(
- Google will drop the price of Gemini Ultra to $125 a month or less, Anthropic and OpenAI will follow suit.
- Logitech will start making a dedicated vibe-coding microphone-whatever that means.
not this dress up and cosplaying being done - like the economy is growing - while it's actually shedding jobs, homes ain't selling cz there ain't buyers
Lots of new subreddits have been popping up this year, in different languages, that are flooded with AI generated rage and engagement bait posts. Facebook is feeding boomers with the same kind of slop.
We will see the repercussions of this on society.
The core issue is structural: most cryptocurrencies depend on foundations that fund development, marketing, and operations through large token holdings. When prices fall, these entities eventually become forced sellers. At some point, their “whale power” is not optional but necessary to survive, creating persistent sell pressure and undermining long-term trust.
Bitcoin likely has a longer lifespan than most alternatives due to its lack of a foundation, fixed monetary policy, and social inertia. Over time, it may absorb whatever residual trust exists in the broader crypto space. However, that does not imply indefinite relevance: Bitcoin could survive while gradually becoming economically marginal, not dead, but increasingly negligible outside niche use cases.
Someone is busted falsifying a race horse’s pedigree to hide use of a cloned sire.
Entropy increases
Putin dies, significant palace intrigue follows, but the war in Ukraine continues on unfortunately.
But let's just say you have to prepare for 2030. The future of jobs report 2025 by the WEF is also reporting that 40% of employers are planning to reduce their workforce because of AI by 2030. [1]
- New major armed conflict starts.
Space
- Artemis II succeeds.
- Starship makes first fully reusable orbital flight.
Other tech
- One of the fusion startups demonstrates net energy.
- AI bubble pops, OpenAI gets acquired by Microsoft.
The Supreme Court rules against Trump in several important cases (tariffs and birthright citizenship, and a couple of others).
Trump threatens to arrest at least one big tech executive.
LLMs continue to improve, but the rate becomes slow enough that most people realize that AGI is not just around the corner.
AI bubble will start to pop (even though the adoption continues to improve slowly).
US / Europe separation will accelerate.
EDIT: For the first 2 - it's the 3rd year I'm thinking it will be 'the' year...
Coffeezilla (and me too right now) basically shout that its like a health app tried to give you junk food off the back alley basically
But I feel like these trends will continue to grow, I was partially interested in stablecoin markets and it seems that apps like paypal,venmo,cash app etc. would essentially just stand back as stablecoin and so there are chances that these financial superapps will do these too in the near future
There would be more emphasis on removing VPN's in countries. I feel like UK (and in extent other countries too) will have some influence on gatekeeping their populations from websites who dont comply to their arbitrary rules and VPN's being the last hope for many, I feel like a real crackdown on it is gonna come in 2026
I feel like centralization and extremism might continue slipping up in 2026 too perhaps. To me I just feel like we see things and this illusion that there are many players in any marketplace but it does feel like they are centralizing (some major tech apps, some major finance apps etc. which will influence a lot of average person's opinion) and we just saw something similar happen to dram prices which i also think wont really reduce even in 2026
I am seeing people fed up with centralization and big tech and more interested in homemade-alike solutions/created by normal people. Projects like clippy and others have made more people aware of such things and I think it will continue in 2026 when more people see this real "AI tax" of increasing prices of hardware
Centralized finance and decentralized finance (although I dont appreciate crypto) feel to me would kinda converge on stablecoins and then merge/already are merging and In my opinion the company with more ties to centralized finance could win. Tech and finance seem to me would have more coupling on a rate similar to 2025.
The AI bubble has chances of popping in 2026 but I am not sure about it but that being said, its a matter of when, not if in my opinion. But if AI bubble does pop, I feel like finance and tech would decouple most likely because it seems to me that if an offer as lucrative as "AGI" for the financial investors failed in their eyes, they would stray away from real tech businesses who make real life problems much easier but wont have the lure/lucrativeness if the bubble pops up
Else, we are gonna see the same thing where people will slap AI over anything to get funding. I do feel like if AI bubble pops then the companies who picked AI hype when there was no need might be shamed for it but It never really happened in the crypto space because those companies went straight to AI after crypto so I think we would need some time in between after AI bursting and another hype to give people some time to think what really happened and the scale of it if it does bursts.
US improves relations with China.
Climate problems are shown to be less serious than previously thought.
The rich get richer, but nobody cares because quality of life is improved for everybody.
AI brings additional leisure time, which results in a worldwide resurgence in bluegrass music as millions take up the guitar, mandolin and violin. The biggest surge is in banjo, though. Billy Strings leaps ahead of Taylor Swift in concert sales.
2026 is really looking up! Happy New year, Hacker News!
What actually lands inside big companies will be much less cinematic: narrow, localized automations in finance, HR, ops, compliance. A cluster of weird little agents that reconcile reports, nudge workflows, and glue together legacy systems. Not “AI runs the business end to end”, just a slow creep of point solutions that quietly become indispensable while the slideware keeps talking about transformation.
Western world will face a new generational war to uphold democracies.
Ai bubble pops and causes turmoil in the economy, software jobs will be back.
I get swole. In bank account and muscles.
LLM progress will platoue.
Elon Musk gets richer
Europe anti-woke grows
Chinas market power will continue grow around the globe. There might be some issues with there economy but they will increase exports in all relevant inudstries.
The Solar revolution in Afrika will continue, driven by even cheaper chinese goods. It will be a story around the globe how much Afrika is changing.
CATLs Sodium Batterie will reduce prices of energy stores to a new unexpected low. Cheaper faster than expected driving further some success stories.
Germany (were i'm from) will continue struggling and it will get worse for the automotive sector (especially for the suppliers).
Due to economic issues in germany, the far right nazi party AfD will continue winning a few more % points.
Some car maker will bring a relevant cheap globally available EV car. I suspect BYD, which will increase public awareness of germans automotive sector or automotive around the world. Automotive will start becoming a commodity. Revenue per car will go down.
Climate will see some new record. Either more and stronger storms, more heat or/and more flud rain. We will talk about it temporarily and then continue going back to ignoring it.
= USA vs. the rest of the world:
Stuff will continue as shitty as they are. Companies will not compensate the inflation americans have seen so they continue to struggle.
There will be 2-3 attacks on public figures. If the economy will continue downwoards, potentially also some CEO or very well known Rich Person (Musk, Suckerberg, Bill Gates (after Epstein files), Jeff Bezos)
Epstein files will come out, but due to every public media playing it down and no one caring anymore about it anyway (we all know, he is dead, Maxwell might get out of jail) and it will not lead to a coop. I will learn the full extend of Bill Gates affairs and will strike him from my list of people i thought have a positive story arc.
Republicans will lose Midterms harder than usual/landslide style.
Conflict between Trump and the house and senate then this will lead to either Trump doing more golfing or further sliding of the USA in an authoritarien direction. The only issue here is, Trump is to old and fragile, he couldn't care less about his power because he just does what he wants anything but he can't come up with a more elaborate "USA Trump Corp" strategy to take really over. While in parallel authorian stuff depends on a person and there is no one really there. Vance? No way.
Hey lets bet on Vance and the wife of the Kirk guy coming together and the republicans liking it that much but no i don't think this will play out.
Obama Care's budget cut might be a trigger point for something.
Russia:
Russia will continue influencing US Politics, but economy will continue going down. We are coming to the magic 5 year mark, Ukraines strategy attacking russian oil is working but Russia is Russia, people can suffer there.
Derek Huffman will die.
AI:
AI will continue growing. Progress will still be seen in a lot of different areas. Nvidia will focus on increasing production and will see another Hit with Rubin. We might see some very special new thing. Perhaps material science discovery, mathematics or generall so much better LLMs.
It will continue affecting jobs around the world. Especially in fields were GenAI is already really good. Arts. There will be more AI music on Radio and in the Top Charts. GenAI for images will continue reducing jobs for 2d and 3d, advertising, texting, translations.
Robots will continue progress and impress us.
Luigi:
He will get lifelong prison sentence :(
Musk:
SpaceX will be a successful launch, while Tesla struggles in car sales, he will continue hyping and overshadowed through SpaceX, Tesla will not fall yet. The Selfdriving thing will kill someone, his robot will not be ready.
GTA 6 will be out and it will be awesome!
- US goes on the offensive on tokenization moving bonds, stocks, transfers, etc. to the blockchain. China opens up its eCNY to the grand public.
- AI bubble pops. Companies decide that LLM-coding is not worth it after accounting for the downsides. LLMs for generating photos and videos are still not good enough. OpenAI goes the way of pipedpiper.
- The war in Ukraine remains unresolved. Russia advances but only marginally. Europe still shaking its head about what to do. US lower its involvement.
- The US world cup goes very badly. Like embarrassingly bad. Goes okay in Canada and kinda okay in Mexico though.
- China invades Taiwan in the last month of 2026.