Traditionally, sophisticated writing correlated with higher-quality research (or at least higher status/effort). This paper argues that post-LLM, we are seeing a flood of manuscripts that use complex, polished language but contain substantively weaker scientific contribution.

They claim LLM adoption increases output by up to 89%, which is a massive productivity shock. If the cost of generating looks-like-science prose drops to near zero, the signal-to-noise ratio in peer review is going to crash. We are entering the era of the polished turd, and likely worse case of publish and perish [0].

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Publish_or_perish

Does anyone know of any writing on the network effects of the publishing system? What would happen if the actual value of the journals (of the little they provide!) were to go away?

The death of scientific twitter, and the failure to establish any replacement makes me worry that we won’t be able to coalesce around a replacement system. Obviously preprints play a role, but we really need our scientific communities to engage with them in a more serious way.

We will have to find better ways to share and promote valuable research, before we all drown in the noise.

- For LLM-assisted output, the more complex the LLM-writing is, the less likely the paper is to be published. From eyeballing, at WC=-30, both have similar chances of publication (~46%). At the upper range of WC=25, LLM-assisted papers are ~17% less likely to be published.

- LLM-assisted authors produced more preprints (+36%).

I wonder:

- What is the distribution of writing complexity?

  * Does the 17% publication deficit at WC=25 correspond to 17% of the 36% excess LLM-assisted papers being WC=25, thus nullifying the effect? Although, it puts extra strain on the review process.