by randyrand
5 subcomments
- Using insider information is how you are supposed to win these. Otherwise it's just random gambling.
This is not the stock market. There are no public reporting rules for the weather, song lyrics, what Kim Kardashian eats tomorrow.
- I have to imagine governments are closely monitoring prediction markets as part of their intelligence apparatus. But then you just add another layer of subterfuge. Imagine a D-Day prediction market... "Will the Allies Land in Normandy, Pas-de-Calais, or somewhere else?" The US might buy a major position on Pas-de-Calais the night before as a decoy!
- It's really hard to understate how brazenly corrupt it all is.
These guys arent even trying to hide their tracks anymore, and polymarket/kalshi are well aware of this
- Insider trading is a feature, not a bug, say Shayne and Tarek, stupidly.
You can't have this amount of obvious manipulation and expect the average retail consumer to join. Same reason why there hasn't been mass consumer adoption of crypto. People just don't feel safe.
- From the BBC article:
"Insider trading is illegal in the stock market"
Not for members of the US Congress.
by biophysboy
2 subcomments
- How often are these prediction markets "correct"? Has this been studied?
by thewileyone
0 subcomment
- This was probably Barron Trump
by 1vuio0pswjnm7
0 subcomment
- Silicon Valley and other so-called "tech" commpanies, along with "tech journalists" and other online commentators (prognosticators) who presumably work for such companies, are a never-ending source of "predictions" (promises) that never hold true
One longstanding example is "vapourware", but the deception carried out today goes even further, IMHO
What if the non-believers and realists could use "prediction markets", in addition to short selling, to bet against them
Maybe they are already doing so, but I have not seen any examples
by mellosouls
1 subcomments
- Where's the evidence for this?
Note the lack of links and that all of these Maduro reports originate from X which is rampant with polymarket grifters claiming secret insights into how the big bets are made.
Perhaps somebody here can provide a Polymarket link (not screenshots) to the proof?
I'm not saying the BBC has been scammed here but the only link I've found to the alleged account 404s. Perhaps its been taken down by Polymarket?
Anyway for anybody new to this, even if this checks out please - as ever - be cautious about the claims of easy money.
- How long before the government intentionally does something stupid so that a Prediction Market pays off?
Probably won't happen actually, since they can just do blatant insider trading on the stock market instead.
- Just a casual $32,537 bet a few hours before the secret operation. Nothing to see here.
by ecommerceguy
5 subcomments
- can i bet on when prediction markets will collapse due to rampant insider bets?
by mistermaster1
1 subcomments
- This is such a small amount that either this is one of many accounts the user made in order to mask said activity or this was just a lucky bet (people make stupid lucky bets on hunches all the time).
Imagine the massive value of having such a world changing event in advance (the search volume alone probably affected an order of magnitude more in online advertising revenue at least). $430k?! Are you F’ing serious?
- Don't gamble on this crap. Just...don't.
by colesantiago
6 subcomments
- Insider trading is legal.
Crime is legal.
You shouldn't be surprised though, name any market, all markets are full of manipulation and insiders.
by paulpauper
4 subcomments
- It's technically not illegal if someone was able to observe the planes flying and place the bets accordingly. Public info is legal to trade on.
But it's obviously also ripe for abuse. Any govt. employee can start trading on the side, 100% untraceable.
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