The details are what stops it from working in every form it's been tried.

You cannot escape the details. You must engage with them and solve them directly, meticulously. It's messy, it's extremely complicated and it's just plain hard.

There is no level of abstraction that saves you from this, because the last level is simply things happening in the world in the way you want them to, and it's really really complicated to engineer that to happen.

I think this is evident by looking at the extreme case. There are plenty of companies with software engineers who truly can turn instructions articulated in plain language into software. But you see lots of these not being successful for the simple reason that those providing the instructions are not sufficiently engaged with the detail, or have the detail wrong. Conversely, for the most successful companies the opposite is true.

COBOL was supposed to let managers write programs. VB let business users make apps. Squarespace killed the need for web developers. And now AI.

What actually happens: the tooling lowers the barrier to entry, way more people try to build things, and then those same people need actual developers when they hit the edges of what the tool can do. The total surface area of "stuff that needs building" keeps expanding.

The developers who get displaced are the ones doing purely mechanical work that was already well-specified. But the job of understanding what to build in the first place, or debugging why the automated thing isn't doing what you expected - that's still there. Usually there's more of it.

In practice, I see expensive reinvention. Developers debug database corruption after pod restarts without understanding filesystem semantics. They recreate monitoring strategies and networking patterns on top of CNI because they never learned the fundamentals these abstractions are built on. They're not learning faster: they're relearning the same operational lessons at orders of magnitude higher cost, now mediated through layers of YAML.

Each wave of "democratisation" doesn't eliminate specialists. It creates new specialists who must learn both the abstraction and what it's abstracting. We've made expertise more expensive to acquire, not unnecessary.

Excel proves the rule. It's objectively terrible: 30% of genomics papers contain gene name errors from autocorrect, JP Morgan lost $6bn from formula errors, Public Health England lost 16,000 COVID cases hitting row limits. Yet it succeeded at democratisation by accepting catastrophic failures no proper system would tolerate.

The pattern repeats because we want Excel's accessibility with engineering reliability. You can't have both. Either accept disasters for democratisation, or accept that expertise remains required.

The pattern repeats because the market incentivizes it. AI has been pushed as an omnipotent, all-powerful job-killer by these companies because shareholder value depends on enough people believing in it, not whether the tooling is actually capable. It's telling that folks like Jensen Huang talk about people's negativity towards AI being one of the biggest barriers to advancement, as if they should be immune from scrutiny.

They'd rather try to discredit the naysayers than actually work towards making these products function the way they're being marketed, and once the market wakes up to this reality, it's gonna get really ugly.

This is why those same mid level managers and C suite people are salivating over AI and mentioning it in every press release.

The reality is that costs are being reduced by replacing US teams with offshore teams. And the layoffs are being spun as a result of AI adoption.

AI tools for software development are here to stay and accelerate in the coming months and years and there will be advances. But cost reductions are largely realized via onshore/offshore replacement.

The remaining onshore teams must absorb much more slack and fixes and in a way end up being more productive.

“Since FORTRAN should virtually eliminate coding and debugging…” -- FORTRAN preliminary report, 1954

http://www.softwarepreservation.org/projects/FORTRAN/BackusE...

https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~EWD/transcriptions/EWD10xx/EWD104...

The first electronic computers were programmed by manually re-wiring their circuits. Going from that to being able to encode machine instructions on punchcards did not replace developers. Nor did going from raw machine instructions to assembly code. Nor did going from hand-written assembly to compiled low-level languages like C/FORTRAN. Nor did going from low-level languages to higher-level languages like Java, C++, or Python. Nor did relying on libraries/frameworks for implementing functionality that previously had to be written from scratch each time. Each of these steps freed developers from having to worry about lower-level problems and instead focus on higher-level problems. Mel's intellect is freed from having to optimize the position of the memory drum [0] to allow him to focus on optimizing the higher-level logic/algorithms of the problem he's solving. As a result, software has become both more complex but also much more capable, and thus much more common.

(The thing that distinguishes gen-AI from all the previous examples of increasing abstraction is that those examples are deterministic and often formally verifiable mappings from higher abstraction -> lower abstraction. Gen-AI is neither.)

[0] http://catb.org/jargon/html/story-of-mel.html

The bookkeepers I work with used to spend hours on manual data entry. Now they spend that time on client advisory work. The total workload stayed the same - the composition shifted toward higher-value tasks.

Same dynamic played out with spreadsheets in the 80s. Didn't eliminate accountants - it created new categories of work and raised expectations for what one person could handle.

The interesting question isn't whether developers will be replaced but whether the new tool-augmented developer role will pay less. Early signs suggest it might - if LLMs commoditise the coding part, the premium shifts to understanding problems and systems thinking.

Case in point: web frameworks as mentioned in the article. These frameworks do not exist to increase productivity for either the developer or the employer. They exist to mitigate training and lower the bar so the employer has a wider pool of candidates to select from.

No matter how much progress we make, as long as reasoning about complex systems is unavoidable, this doesn’t change. We don’t always know what we want, and we can’t always articulate it clearly.

So people building software end up dealing with two problems at once. One is grappling with the intrinsic, irreducible complexity of the system. The other is trying to read the minds of unreliable narrators, including leadership and themselves.

Tools help with the mechanical parts of the job, but they don’t remove the thinking and understanding bottleneck. And since the incentives of leadership, investors, and the people doing the actual work don’t line up, a tug-of-war is the most predictable outcome.

For context: we're the creators of ChatBotKit and have been deploying AI agents since the early days (about 2 years ago). These days, there's no doubt our systems are self-improving. I don't mean to hype this (judge for yourself from my skepticism on Reddit) but we're certainly at a stage where the code is writing the code, and the quality has increased dramatically. It didn't collapse as I was expecting.

What I don't know is why this is happening. Is it our experience, the architecture of our codebase, or just better models? The last one certainly plays a huge role, but there are also layers of foundation that now make everything easier. It's a framework, so adding new plugins is much easier than writing the whole framework from scratch.

What does this mean for hiring? It's painfully obvious to me that we can do more with less, and that's not what I was hoping for just a year ago. As someone who's been tinkering with technology and programming since age 12, I thought developers would morph into something else. But right now, I'm thinking that as systems advance, programming will become less of an issue—unless you want to rebuild things from scratch, but AI models can do that too, arguably faster and better.

It is hard to convey that kind of experience.

I am wondering if others are seeing it too.

Of course semi-technical people can troubleshoot, it's part of nearly every job. (Some are better at it than others.)

But how many semi-technical people can design a system that facilitates troubleshooting? Even among my engineering acquaintances, there are plenty who cannot.

Fortunate or unfortunate, many procedural tasks are extremely hard for humans to master, but easy to AI to generate. In the meantime, we structured our society to support such procedural work. As the wave of innovation spreads, many people will rise but many will also suffer.

But he missed the opportunity to recognize that the replacement pattern is, in fact, a broader principle. Or perhaps he did recognize it and decided to focus its scope on software development.

The broader replacement principle is that for a business, any (specialized) process or system or department represents an expense, and there is constant pressure to reduce expenses, or definitely once revenue/growth plateaus or decreases. ALL Businesses invariably, over time, attempt to replace every department or process or function with cheaper alternatives. Software Development is not unique here.

At the country level, this has led to the movement of manufacturing to China and other countries, the outsourcing of software development to India and other countries, and the hollowing out of middle America.

Does anyone have insight into whether this is a unique situation specific to our technological age? It feels fundamentally different from the normal cycle of conquest and colonialism?

Although to be fair there was a very very strong underpinning of corporations driving the wave of European colonialism from the 1600s to the 1900s- Hudson's Bay Company, Dutch East India and West India Companies, British East India Company, Royal African Company, French East/West India Companies, Danish West India and Guinea Company, the Spanish Royal Companies, Portuguese General Companies - a bit different from prior expansions of conquest by empires. But even these corporations were pinned upon expanding trading zones rather than cost management. In the 1900s and the 2000s there was some expansionism - getting countries to open up their economies - but that was managed through the IMF and the World Bank.

At the end of the day, the big dream is about accumulating power and wealth. For some people. It comes down to a fundamental world view through which people take action - some dream of scientific advancement, others of service to others, and so on. Exploration has much fewer opportunities in the modern age.

Software Development is just what a lot of this community happens to partake in.

Similarly, one might argue as increased capital finds its way to a given field, due to increased outcomes, labour in turn helps pressure pricing. Increased "sales" opportunity within said field (i.e people being skilled enough to be employed, or specialized therein) will similarly lead to pricing pressure - on both ends.

- Me, the last time it wasn't different

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At that time I had a chat with a small startup CEO who was sure that he'll fire all those pesky programmers who think they are "smart" because they can code. He pointed me to a code generated by Rational Rose for his diagram, and told that only methods should be implemented, which also will be possible soon, the hardest part is to model the system.

The hardest thing about software construction is specification. There's always going to be domain specific knowledge associated with requirements. If you make it possible, as Delphi and Visual Basic 6 did, for a domain expert to hack together something that works, that crude but effective prototype functions as a concrete specification that a professional programmer can use to craft a much better version useful to more people than just the original author.

The expansion of the pool of programmers was the goal. It's possible that AI could eventually make programming (or at least specification) a universal skill, but I doubt it. The complexity embedded in all but the most trivial of programs will keep the software development profession in demand for the foreseeable future.

Here's an archived link: https://archive.is/y9SyQ

In particular the demand for software tools grows faster than our ability to satisfy it. More demand exists than the people who would do the demanding can imagine. Many people who are not software engineers can now write themselves micro software tools using LLMs -- this ranges from home makers to professionals of every kind. But the larger systems that require architecting, designing, building, and maintaining will continue to require some developers -- fewer, perhaps, but perhaps also such systems will proliferate.

If educators use AI to write/update the lectures and the assignments, students use AI to do the assignments, then AI evaluates the student's submissions, what is the point?

I'm worried about some major software engineering fields experiencing the same problem. If design and requirements are written by AI, code is mostly written by AI, and users are mostly AI agents. What is the point?

Speaking of tools, that style of writing rings a bell.. Ben Affleck made a similar point about the evolving use of computers and AI in filmmaking, wielded with creativity by humans with lived experiences, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2OsvVJC0s. Faster visual effects production enables more creative options.

And I always think: any of these users could have ran a basic grammar check with an llm or even a spellchecker, but didnt. Maybe software will be the same after all.

P.S. prob I jinxed my own post and did a mistake somewhere

In 2001, you needed an entire development team if you wanted to have an online business. Having an online business was a complicated, niche thing.

Now, because it has gotten substantially easier, there are thousands of times as many (probably millions of times) online stores, and many of them employ some sort of developer (usually on a retainer) to do work for them. Those consultants probably make more than the devs of 2001 did, too.

It's the dream of replacing labor.

They've already convinced their customers what the value of the product is! Cutting labor costs is profit! Never mind the cost to society! Socialize those costs and privatize those profits!

Then they keep the money for themselves, because capitalism lets a few people own the means of production.

So everything that looks cheaper than paying someone educated and skilled to do a thing is extremely attractive. All labor-saving devices ultimate do that.

You should ask the business owners. They are hiring fewer developers and looking to cut more.

But less thinking is essential, or at least that’s what it’s like using the tools.

I’ve been vibing code almost 100% of the time since Claude 4.5 Opus came out. I use it to review itself multiple times, and my team does the same, then we use AI to review each others’ code.

Previously, we whiteboarded and had discussions more than we do now. We definitely coded and reviewed more ourselves than we do now.

I don’t believe that AI is incapable of making mistakes, nor do I think that multiple AI reviews are enough to understand and solve problems, yet. Some incredibly huge problems are probably on the horizon. But for now, the general “AI will not replace developers” is false; our roles have changed- we are managers now, and for how long?

The conversation shouldn't be "will AI replace developers". It should be "how do humans stay competitive as AI gets 10x better every 18 months?"

I watched Claude Code build a feature in 30 minutes that used to take weeks. That moment crystallised something: you don't compete WITH AI. You need YOUR personal AI.

Here's what I mean: Frontier teams at Anthropic/OpenAI have 20-person research teams monitoring everything 24/7. They're 2-4 weeks ahead today. By 2027? 16+ weeks ahead. This "frontier gap" is exponential.

The real problem isn't tools or abstraction. It's information overload at scale. When AI collapses execution time, the bottleneck shifts to judgment. And good judgment requires staying current across 50+ sources (Twitter, Reddit, arXiv, Discord, HN).

Generic ChatGPT is commodity. What matters is: does your AI know YOUR priorities? Does it learn YOUR judgment patterns? Does it filter information through YOUR lens?

The article is right that tools don't eliminate complexity. But personal AI doesn't eliminate complexity. It amplifies YOUR ability to handle complexity at frontier speed.

The question isn't about replacement. It's about levelling the playing field. And frankly we all are figuring out on how will this shape out in the future. And if you have any solution that can help me level up, please hit me up.

Really?

Is this reflected in wages and hiring? I work for a company that makes a hardware product with mission-critical support software. The software team dwarfs the hardware team, and is paid quite well. Now they're exempt from "return to office."

I attended a meeting to move a project into development phase, and at one point the leader got up and said: "Now we've been talking about the hardware, but of course we all know that what's most important is the software."

By the 1860s artists were feeling the heat and responded by inventing all the "isms" - starting with impressionism. That's kept them employed so far, but who knows whether they'll be able to co-exist with whatever diffusion models become in 30 years.

I can see the 2030s dev doing more original research with mundane tasks put to LLM. Courses will cover manual coding, assembler etc. for a good foundation. But that'll be like an uber driver putting on a spare tire.

Nothing can replace code, because code is design[1]. Low-code came about as a solution to the insane clickfest of no-code. And what is low-code? It’s code over a boilerplate-free appropriately-high level of abstraction.

This reminds me of the 1st chapter of the Clean Architecture book[2], pages 5 and 6, which shows a chart of engineering staff growing from tens to 1200 and yet the product line count (as a simple estimate of features) asymptotically stops growing, barely growing in lines of code from 300 staff to 1200 staff.

As companies grow and throw more staff at the problem, software architecture is often neglected, dramatically slowing development (due to massive overhead required to implement features).

Some companies decided that the answer is to optimize for hiring lots of junior engineers to write dumbed down code full of boilerplate (e.g. Go).

The hard part is staying on top of the technical (architectural and design) debt to make sure that feature development is efficient. That is the hard job and the true value of a software architect, not writing design documents.

[1] https://www.developerdotstar.com/mag/articles/reeves_origina... A timeless article from 1992, pre-UML, but references precursors like Booch and object diagrams, as well as CASE tools [2] You can read it here in Amazon sample chapter: https://read.amazon.com/sample/0134494164?clientId=share

Tim Bryce was kind of the anti Scott Adams: he felt that programmers were people of mediocre intelligence at best that thought they were so damn smart, when really if they were so smart, they'd move into management or business analysis where they could have a real impact, and not be content with the scutwork of translating business requirements into machine-executable code. As it is, they don't have the people skills or big-picture systems thinking to really pull it off, and that combined with their snobbery made them a burden to an organization unless they were effectively managed—such as with his methodology PRIDE, which you could buy direct from his web site.

Oddly enough, in a weird horseshoe-theory instance of convergent psychological evolution, Adams and Bryce both ended up Trump supporters.

Ultimately, however, "the Bryce was right": the true value in software development lies not in the lines of code but in articulating what needs to be automated and how it can benefit the business. The more precisely you nail this down, the more programming becomes a mechanical task. Your job as a developer is to deliver the most value to the customer with the least possible cost. (Even John Carmack agrees with this.) This requires thinking like a business, in terms of dollars and cents (and people), not bits and bytes. And as AI becomes a critical component of software development, business thinking will become more necessary and technical thinking, much less so. Programmers as a professional class will be drastically reduced or eliminated, and replaced with business analysts with some technical understanding but real strength on the business/people side, where the real value gets added. LLMs meaningfully allow people to issue commands to computers in people language, for the very first time. As they evolve they will be more capable of implementing business requirements expressed directly in business language, without an intermediator to translate those requirements into code (i.e., the programmer). This was always the goal, and it's within reach.

So yes, the market shifts, but mostly at the junior end. Fewer entry-level hires, higher expectations for those who are hired, and more leverage given to experienced developers who can supervise, correct, and integrate what these tools produce.

What these systems cannot replace is senior judgment. You still need humans to make strategic decisions about architecture, business alignment, go or no-go calls, long-term maintenance costs, risk assessment, and deciding what not to build. That is not a coding problem. It is a systems, organizational, and economic problem.

Agentic coding is good at execution within a frame. Seniors are valuable because they define the frame, understand the implications, and are accountable for the outcome. Until these systems can reason about incentives, constraints, and second-order effects across technical and business domains, they are not replacing seniors. They are amplifying them.

The real change is not “AI replaces developers.” It is that the bar for being useful as a developer keeps moving up.

On top of the article's excellent breakdown of what is happening, I think it's important to note a couple of driving factors about why (I posit) it is happening:

First, and this is touched upon in the OP but I think could be made more explicit, a lot of people who bemoan the existence of software development as a discipline see it as a morass of incidental complexity. This is significantly an instance of Chesterton's Fence. Yes, there certainly is incidental complexity in software development, or at least complexity that is incidental at the level of abstraction that most corporate software lives at. But as a discipline, we're pretty good at eliminating it when we find it, though it sometimes takes a while — but the speed with which we iterate means we eliminate it a lot faster than most other disciplines. A lot of the complexity that remains is actually irreducible, or at least we don't yet know how to reduce it. A case in point: programming language syntax. To the outsider, the syntax of modern programming languages, where the commas go, whether whitespace means anything, how angle brackets are parsed, looks to the uninitiated like a jumble of arcane nonsense that must be memorized in order to start really solving problems, and indeed it's a real barrier to entry that non-developers, budding developers, and sometimes seasoned developers have to contend with. But it's also (a selection of competing frontiers of) the best language we have, after many generations of rationalistic and empirical refinement, for humans to unambiguously specify what they mean at the semantic level of software development as it stands! For a long time now we haven't been constrained in the domain of programming language syntax by the complexity or performance of parser implementations. Instead, modern programming languages tend toward simpler formal grammars because they make it easier for _humans_ to understand what's going on when reading the code. AI tools promise to (amongst other things; don't come at me AI enthusiasts!) replace programming language syntax with natural language. But actually natural language is a terrible syntax for clearly and unambiguously conveying intent! If you want a more venerable example, just look at mathematical syntax, a language that has never been constrained by computer implementation but was developed by humans for humans to read and write their meaning in subtle domains efficiently and effectively. Mathematicians started with natural language and, through a long process of iteration, came to modern-day mathematical syntax. There's no push to replace mathematical syntax with natural language because, even though that would definitely make some parts of the mathematical process easier, we've discovered through hard experience that it makes the process as a whole much harder.

Second, humans (as a gestalt, not necessarily as individuals) always operate at the maximum feasible level of complexity, because there are benefits to be extracted from the higher complexity levels and if we are operating below our maximum complexity budget we're leaving those benefits on the table. From time to time we really do manage to hop up the ladder of abstraction, at least as far as mainstream development goes. But the complexity budget we save by no longer needing to worry about the details we've abstracted over immediately gets reallocated to the upper abstraction levels, providing things like development velocity, correctness guarantees, or UX sophistication. This implies that the sum total of complexity involved in software development will always remain roughly constant. This is of course a win, as we can produce more/better software (assuming we really have abstracted over those low-level details and they're not waiting for the right time to leak through into our nice clean abstraction layer and bite us…), but as a process it will never reduce the total amount of ‘software development’ work to be done, whatever kinds of complexity that may come to comprise. In fact, anecdotally it seems to be subject to some kind of Braess' paradox: the more software we build, the more our society runs on software, the higher the demand for software becomes. If you think about it, this is actually quite a natural consequence of the ‘constant complexity budget’ idea. As we know, software is made of decisions (https://siderea.dreamwidth.org/1219758.html), and the more ‘manual’ labour we free up at the bottom of the stack the more we free up complexity budget to be spent on the high-level decisions at the top. But there's no cap on decision-making! If you ever find yourself with spare complexity budget left over after making all your decisions you can always use it to make decisions about how you make decisions, ad infinitum, and yesterday's high-level decisions become today's menial labour. The only way out of that cycle is to develop intelligences (software, hardware, wetware…) that can not only reason better at a particular level of abstraction than humans but also climb the ladder faster than humanity as a whole — singularity, to use a slightly out-of-vogue term. If we as a species fall off the bottom of the complexity window then there will no longer be a productivity-driven incentive to ideate, though I rather look forward to a luxury-goods market of all-organic artisanal ideas :)

Well probably we'd want a person who really gets the AI, as they'll have a talent for prompting it well.

Meaning: knows how to talk to computers better than other people.

So a programmer then...

I think it's not that people are stupid. I think there's actually a glee behind the claims AI will put devs out of work - like they feel good about the idea of hurting them, rather than being driven by dispassionate logic.

Maybe it's the ancient jocks vs nerds thing.

Service-led companies are doing relatively better right now. Lower costs, smaller teams, and a lot of “good enough” duct-tape solutions are shipping fast.

Fewer developers are needed to deliver the same output. Mature frameworks, cloud, and AI have quietly changed the baseline productivity.

And yet, these companies still struggle to hire and retain people. Not because talent doesn’t exist, but because they want people who are immediately useful, adaptable, and can operate in messy environments.

Retention is hard when work is rushed, ownership is limited, and growth paths are unclear. People leave as soon as they find slightly better clarity or stability.

On the economy: it doesn’t feel like a crash, more like a slow grind. Capital is cautious. Hiring is defensive. Every role needs justification.

In this environment, it’s a good time for “hackers” — not security hackers, but people who can glue systems together, work with constraints, ship fast, and move without perfect information.

Comfort-driven careers are struggling. Leverage-driven careers are compounding.

Curious to see how others are experiencing this shift.

Now the expectation from some executives or high level managers is that managers and employees will create custom software for their own departments with minimal software development costs. They can do this using AI tools, often with minimal or no help from software engineers.

Its not quite the equivalent of having software developed entirely by software engineers, but it can be a significant step up from what you typically get from Excel.

I have a pretty radical view that the leading edge of this stuff has been moving much faster than most people realize:

2024: AI-enhanced workflows automating specific tasks

2025: manually designed/instructed tool calling agents completing complex tasks

2026: the AI Employee emerges -- robust memory, voice interface, multiple tasks, computer and browser use. They manage their own instructions, tools and context

2027: Autonomous AI Companies become viable. AI CEO creates and manages objectives and AI employees

Note that we have had the AI Employee and AI Organization for awhile in different somewhat weak forms. But in the next 18 months or so as the model and tooling abilities continue to improve, they will probably be viable for a growing number of business roles and businesses.