Then along came the absolute moron Wilhelm, and he managed to Leroy Jenkins Germany's beautifully arranged relationships into an aggressive, tactless nightmare where all Germany's allies were turned into enemies, and everything turned out exactly like you'd expect.

As the saying goes, history doesn't repeat but it often rhymes.

This may be a historically significant speech.

https://www.youtube.com/live/dE981Z_TaVo?t=100

1 - https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1o2s6qp/yuan_has_s...

2 - https://www.economist.com/china/2025/09/10/china-is-ditching... ( https://archive.is/aNRmm )

3 - https://www.amazon.com/dp/B006JAM3UU/ "Currency Wars" by James Rickards (2011)

[4] - https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart

It is so obvious in the context of globalization: countries seeking power will chip away at fiscal dominance of others with a thousand cuts. Why wouldn't they? Especially after years of getting bullied.

So many people are so dependent on this reality that I think it's going to happen long before any Americans accept it has happened.

What would replace it? I guess the options are Yuan, Gold, Oil or maybe BRICS in the future, none of which are safe, stable, and liquid.

https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/insights/blackrock-inves...

And if you feel like something long (pdf): https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/A...

It should go without saying that this would be shortsighted - China made it work because they were able to take advantage of a strong international market denominated in USD. The US cannot destroy our own common market and currency and expect to take advantage of it.

Furthermore, we know what a de-dollarized world looks like - imperialism. If you need to secure oil/mineral/food for your economy but you need expensive foreign currencies to acquire it, it suddenly becomes much more economically appealing to take the resources.

The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged.

So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

It’s doing to be interesting to see how this plays out as the producers and makers of the world unite, and the EU turns away from the US.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historica...

Now look at the gold chart over this past year. Yeah, people are uneasy and we're likely to see a lot of printing.

  JP Morgan see gold prices crossing $4,000/oz by Q2 2026

Also. Any attack to the independence of the federal reserve damages whee vale of the dollar

Miran, and his thinking, clearly have this admin's ear and they're following many of the prescribed steps in his white paper. To the T frankly.

So if you're surprised by the USD devaluing by 10% last year or the immense pressure to drop the fed rate to under 2% by next year, well the reasoning and strategy is all laid out very clearly in the above whitepaper.

No confusion necessary! They explain every (terrifying) bit of their plan in that paper.

What is left out, and why I say it is terrifying, is that the whitepaper is academic and basically leaves uncovered any of the _political_ ramifications of these economic changes. And of course, those political ramifications can be immense.

Last archival I've found https://web.archive.org/web/20251110042359/https://en.wikipe...

The euro is difficult to manage because of the diffuse control, pound an even smaller economy, RMB just not global enough (and tough argument to see that happening), gold/bitcoin/whatever not the same inherent stability.

Indeed the dollar weakening, but nothing really to take it's place.

Yes, US dollar is losing a bit of power and influence. This is likely to continue.

Making inferences about the US global dominance based on this fact is misguided. US global dominance is as strong as ever and, if anything, getting stronger. US has very successfully managed to move the game a level above currency, to direct governance via financial, legal, political and military means. It has made any meaningful competitors either entirely irrelevant (e.g. Russia), pretty well aligned (e.g. India) or pretty well contained (e.g. China) It's blue skies ahead.

I suspect were about to see that pivot

Trouble will really come when the US tries to get out of its ridiculous debt trap. What will they do, wave a wand and their debt goes away?

One of the most effective ways to ease the trade deficit is to reduce USD's status as a reserve currency.

[0] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pT2cohNt6a4 [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2b4TjQa4gk

I expect it to be worse here in the US.

I wasn't expecting us to try to speedrun it, though. I thought we had a decade or two left, now I think it'll happen before the end of the year.

https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/

I’d still bet that any sudden movements in this direction will be checked

[0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDHBFIN [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS

After the nonsense with Greenland no one really wants to give anymore financial power to the US so we'll see more assets kept in local currency or different reserves currencies like the Euro, Yen, Sterling, or ChF.

Losing the dollar as a reserve currency is losing the empire.

• Despite a smaller share of global trade and output, the dollar still dominates in transactions like trade invoicing.

• Dedollarization is advancing in central bank reserves, with USD share at a two decade low.

• Foreign ownership of US Treasuries has declined for 15 years, signaling reduced external reliance on the dollar.

• The shift is most visible in commodities, where an increasing share of energy is priced in non USD contracts.

The chance of the dollar losing its reserve currency status is slim-to-none. No matter how bizarre the US is, nobody trusts the Chinese Communist Party (CPP). And although the US can manipulate the value of the dollar, its tools are limited compared to the CPP.

Plus, the US is still the only country that's willing and able to prop up the world financial system with no immediate benefit (see Argentina). The US can and will intervene when necessary. And as history has shown, the Euro Zone can't really make decisions quickly and effectively. How many times has the Euro been on the verge of collapse in the last 20 years? And is proximity to Russia is, well, risky.

In any case there is no currency big enough to take the dollar's spot at this point in time. Trillions of dollars flow through the financial system every day.

A 1.1% devaluation doesn't seem so bad per year, except for the political risk and economic uncertainty.

Would they implement capital flight controls? if you invest in the US, can you get your money out? No one knows but it seems increasingly less likely. Red lines are being crossed weekly.

The country is heading towards a decline into a developing world style authoritarian dictatorship.

I mean, it sure looks like the goal.

Contrary to popular opinion, IMO PRC doesn't want reserve currency trade off (triffin / trade deficits etc). What PRC wants is to secure her own interests with RMB, which is mostly happening, energy contracts, lots of bilateral trade happening in RMB now. What PRC also wants is to make maintaining reserve USD onerous, i.e. high rates, high debt servicing... which already indirectly limits US in real ways like reduced defense acquisitions in last few years.

PRC wants USD exorbitant privilege to be just exorbitant.

Then US incentivized to dump system (etc debasing) which will fuck over global USD users and tank US reputation even more. A lot of US actions make sense when you realize Trump doesn't want to deal with an increasingly unprofitable global utility. PRC doesn't want to step in to build new pipelines, they want to see US (mis)manage existing US owned plumbing that everyone is using so poorly it fucks up things at home and for everyone else, meanwhile PRC has comfy off the grid setup for herself and her guests.

if an article ends in a question mark, the answer is no.

> the greenback dominated 88% of traded FX volumes — close to record highs — while the Chinese yuan (CNY) made up just 7%, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

> Likewise, there is little sign of USD erosion in trade invoicing. “The share of USD and EUR has held steady over the past two decades at around 40–50%.

there is currently no other alternative to meet the global liquidity demands

If you cannot see this, or cannot believe it, you should probably check if you are in a ideological bubble.

Is the world going to de-dollarize though? Probably not, shy of an EU independence, which is about as likely as Europeans adopting an American work culture. Although, I won't rule out the possibility of the EU moving it's eggs to China's basket either. What a world that would be, a Sino-Euro axis and an North American axis. Whew

I suspect there might be a lot of "de-dollarization" going on in realms that might not be easy to measure. To be specific: it is interesting that crypto-currencies have emerged as the currency of choice for illegal activities.

Wait until Greenland drama goes sideways, then you will see the dollar getting washed out as the international currency.

Understand this and you'll avoid falling into various traps and conspiracy theories. For example, there are people who believe that the US invasion of Iraq was caused by Iraq wanting to sell oil in euros instead of dollars.

This is a nonsen theory because every oil transaction could be denominated in euros tomorrow and it wouldn't change anything. The same demand for US dollars would still exist so people would simply convert to euros, buy oil then convert back.

This same understanding debunks the "threat" of a BRICS alliance.

The real problem, if you can call it that, is we have an administration who is both incredibly inept AND intent on destroying the post-WW2 world order. Wealth inequality is getting so bad and the deficit is so bad. Worse, nobody expects either to improve anytime soon. I'm not saying the budget needs to be in balance. It doesn't. A country doesn't work like a business when you can print your own money. But at some point, crippling public debt (in terms of GDP) will devalue the dollar.

Put another way: the illusion of "safety" is at risk. It's just a question of when the vibes shift.

There's no replacing the US dollar until a better option comes along. You need a currency that's open (which rules out Yuan), a currency that is backed up by a strong government (which rules out places like Russia, India, Japan, and the UK), and you'd want something that isn't subject to the same geopolitical rules as the US dollar (which rules out the Euro).

The US is making an absolute mockery over the honor and responsibility granted to in the post-WW2 world. It has sophisticated rivals that are predictably and effectively making use of the self-inflicted crisis. So far the ruling class of the US has been happy enough to let this go, and has been too busy making rocket ships, fake computer currencies, and large estates in south Florida to deal with real world problems.

If you are in the US, buy some gold or a house so your savings aren't destroyed - utterly predictably - by the man who declared Chapter 11 bankrupcy at least 6 times.

USD dominance isn't going anywhere despite hurt feelings over Trump or US policies.

Obama started a process, Biden and Trump are in lockstep. They've reduced this issue by about 1/3rd by 2024. Trumps' tariffs are almost certainly going to be upheld by the supreme court.

This has led to a reshoring boom and trillions of new investment in the usa. Estimates seem to suggest only a marginal improvement of about 3%, so roughly another 20% improvement.

But fixing the very broken trade balances for the USA has long term benefit but it will result in a strong USD, but weaker reserve currency. Obviously the USA is rapidly moving away from bretton woods and being the world police.

They will drop below 50%, but nobody else is there to pick up the reserve currency crown. They get all the benefits of seignoiorage and very little of the downsides for decades.

Their dominance is over but they clearly saw that the cost-benefit was not worth continuing into the future.

Meanwhile, since they stop being the world police and reshored the important things. They dont care about the stability of global trade. Instead their super carrier groups will move to poke their nose only in their own business. You're going to see a fast shift from the usa being hated to being loved over the next 10-20 years.