OpenAI will probably generate an astounding $30 billion this year, but that number needs to hit $200 billion four years from now to ensure profitability and survival. And none of the usual four growth vectors suggest this is possible, let alone likely.

The "astounding" $30b is an afterthought. They're surely going to hit it. I think they can hit it even if they don't monetize a single free user. But they are already starting to now with ads.

Anyways, let's just ignore revenue for a second.

OpenAI has:

* ~1 billion users

* "Ask ChatGPT" is the same as "google it" for the masses

* Best models according to ARC AGI (it's not very close)

* $40b fresh in the bank from Softbank

* Up to $100b investment from Nvidia

* An IPO that will most likely be the most anticipated ever. I'm betting they will IPO at well over $1 trillion and raise a cool $100b.

* Ability to raise debt

* Ability to raise more VC money if they want

These OpenAI doomer articles are quite tiring. It's easy to get engagement by being negative.