- I'm not sure the people writing these articles actually use AI outside of trivial benchmarks. Sure, it can create "a website" in minutes, but what does that website do? I've found (I'm working on vehicle routing and maintenance scheduling) that you very much have to have a plan in your head and an understanding of what's going on in order to build towards reasonable results effectively. There is no replacement for knowing what you want, how to ask for it, and how to verify the implementation. That takes expertise. You cannot tell AI, "We fired the engineers. Take over their jobs and do them better." That's a non-starter.
by thegrim000
2 subcomments
- "This automation wave will kick millions of white-collar workers to the curb in the next 12 - 18 months"
Ok cool, so in a single year when this hasn't happened, we know never to listen to any grand claims he makes ever again.
- At worst, this would only be temporary. Yes, it will cause hardship, but once it trickles down to regular companies, that an LLM is a word predictor, workers will be back. Seems Andrew Yang has never used an LLM to the lengths we do as software developers.
The thing we have to worry about is what's after the LLM.
by clay_the_ripper
3 subcomments
- This view is now consensus, which is highly comforting as consensus is always wrong.
- > Expect the Starbucks in your local suburb to become occupied with middle-aged former office workers who want to get out of the house. That’s a benign portrait,
Surprisingly positive thought. People barely go out because they're stuck in their pavlov ass routine. Go get a coffee, king.
by H1Supreme
1 subcomments
- Something I never see answered in articles like this: What are all these corporations going to do when the AI companies who are handling all their operations raise rates by 10x, 20x, 100x? Outside of "pay up", of course.
Also, shouldn't they be worried about AI providers launching competitors? If these predictions come true, and AI handles most of a company's workload, wouldn't the company itself be something that could be automated away by AI?
- Post your predictions below and let’s come back to this thread in 2 years to see who nailed it.
I dont think it will be as dramatic as he is predicting.
- It is not as bad, but it is happening. Most people on HN if not All, as I haven't read a single comment hinting otherwise, looks at it as some coding / tech scenario. And do not realise how many Bull Shit Job [1] there are within a large organisation, especially in Government. Nearly all Western Government are actively trailing AI/ LLM to replace certain task or job. This roll out is faster than what I have seen before, from PC, Internet to Smartphone. And it is yielding decent results. Some departments are planning 50% head count reduction over next 2 - 3 years. They will of course rehire some for different role of task, but in net numbers it will still be 30%+.
One could argue the more bureaucratic it is, i.e Government organisation, the more apparent this will be.
There are some Bull Shit jobs where LLM still haven't figure it out, mostly due to work flow and inter department / government working together. Once this could be solved I would not be surprised if we could get another 20%. The rest of it will be people much more productive and people who specialise in human interaction and relationship skills.
But even if this isn't end of office, it will be much smaller office. And huge number of people made redundant. Those who claims blue collar jobs are safe dont realise some of these group of people will have to flow into their industry. And that is ignoring robotics. Just look at Unitree recent Lunar new year demonstrations.
It may not be "the end", but it certainly feels like it.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs
- It's no wonder people are scared of AI. The "thought leaders" pushing it forward can only provide scenarios of despair and societal collapse.
As the saying goes, it's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.
- I'm curious what an ai optimist article looks like in contrast to this pessimistic (even if possibly realistic) take
- Referring to another article ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47037628 ): "But Microsoft’s AI CEO is saying AI is going to take everybody’s job. And Sam Altman is saying that AI will wipe out entire categories of jobs. And Matt Shumer is saying that AI is currently like Covid in January 2020—as in, 'kind of under the radar, but about to kill millions of people'. This isn’t just a strange way of marketing a product, it is a completely psychotic one."
So if the psychopathic AI overlords succeed in making us destitute, no problem. They'll have about the same level of success selling Meta glasses and Netlfix subscriptions as currently in Africa, who's ahead of us in terms of AI disruption of jobs and life standard, that is, they are already there :)
- il give him credit, at least he makes partly verifiable claims. they wont come to pass however, but at least he tried.
by kj4211cash
0 subcomment
- Just commenting so I can come back in 12-18 months and laugh at this. Or, you know, reflect on why I didn't believe him in the unlikely event that he's correct.
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