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Allegations of insider trading over prediction-market bets tied to Iran conflict

88 points by paulpauper

by ardanur

2 subcomments

Polymarket is effectively an assassination auction list, you just need to find out which low likelihood resolutions can be swayed by someone's death. But you would need to have money to start which is something aspiring assassins aren't likely to have. And you would also need the skills to launder cryptocurrencies effectively.
This is also true with traditional stock markets, except that laundering real money is much harder to do alone. In the real world an assassin can't really involve more people as those people would realize they are loose ends since they have a get-out-of-jail card in turning on you.
The markets could get ahead of this by stipulating that a resolution via murder will always lead to resolution at prices at a time prior to the death. This would technically incentivize a potential assassin to commit a deniable murder, but if they succeed it won't be the market's [PR] problem.

by georgehotz

7 subcomments

There's no such thing as "insider trading" on prediction markets. Are you telling me people with secret knowledge profited by making correct predictions? That's the whole point of prediction markets! Provide accurate information = get paid. It doesn't matter where the information came from, as long as it's correct.

by 7777777phil

0 subcomment

This is the third major case in about three months.
Before the Iran bets there was a suspected Google insider who made $1.15M on Polymarket (22 of 23 correct bets in 24 hours) and Israeli soldiers criminally charged for monetizing classified intelligence on event contracts.
Textbook Akerlof: without enforcement the adverse selection spiral kills these markets before they get a chance to prove useful. I tracked all three cases here: https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-absolute-insider-mess-of...

by sherr

0 subcomment

According to the Economist recently [1], Israel recently caught a couple of men who bet on the timing of the Iran attacks last year :
"Last summer one “ricosuave666” won more than $150,000 on Polymarket, a betting platform. Their true identity was not clear, but the source of the winnings was: ricosuave666 had bet, with suspicious accuracy, on the precise timing of Israel’s attacks on Iran."
So, these people can be found. Overall however, the magazine does not think that these markets should have a blanket ban.
[1] https://archive.is/W8Ga8 (Prediction markets are rife with insider betting)

by fourseventy

1 subcomments

by muzani

0 subcomment

by khazhoux

3 subcomments

Why are people saying the attacks were a surprise? It was widely reported the day before that embassies were told to clear out “now!”

by instagib

1 subcomments

“all fees would be refunded to users who participated in these markets, and that positions from before his death would be cashed out at the last-traded price.”

by ChrisArchitect

0 subcomment

Related:
A new Polymarket account made over $500k betting on the U.S. strike against Iran
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47209773

by rmm78

1 subcomments

by nibman

0 subcomment