Contrary to what many say, I don't think it's simple as seniors are getting hired and juniors aren't. Juniors are still getting hired because they're still way cheaper and they're just as capable as using AI as anyone. The people getting pushed out are the intermediates and seniors who aren't high performers.

Also this only captures 6 industries, which is a narrow view of what would define "tech" these days.

Not to say that the job market isn't tough but this graph is a very narrow view

My friends who are still at Google also say that most job postings will end up going to someone internally - in fact people say they don't do that many external interviews anymore.

Finally the interview cycle seems to take a lot longer than I remember with quite a few added rounds.

EDIT: posted below as well https://xcancel.com/JosephPolitano/status/202991636466461124...

There’s a longer term graph in the thread. We’ve got a long way to go before we hit 2000 numbers which is what I’d expected.

I don't think the market is flooded with new devs as many state, I think we are in a deep silent crisis

The primary thing going on in the market right now is a lot of companies simply over-hired during the post Covid boom and they’re correcting for that.

I'm a c++ dev, with excellent senior tests, but low experience, and no degree in France. 3 years without a job.

I yearn for a new pandemic.

Fortunately, I learned how to live without a job, found other things to do and how to live a life. Welfare is generous, and I have good savings.

Honestly I don't really want to work in software anymore. If there is a job offer and recruiters are calling me, I answer and I accept.

But I'm not applying to all positions I can see and I won't run after them.

At the same time, the economy at large didn't seem to change very much.

Why did this happen?

https://www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insights/2026-glo...

I got 4 or 5 standard rejections.

I have non-English name so that definitely hurts. I have AP EAD which is a stage between H1B and Green Card and I still require sponsorship. It's complicated but I can't just switch to EAD right away.

It's not just engineers. It's managers and experienced people as well. Don't believe top comment that it is bimodal. Unless you are supertar (99.99%) it becoming hard to get noticed. I thought of going back to IC role but it is hard to pick up and do leetcode all over again. It is extremely hard with a special needs kids at home.

Any suggestions or recommendations for me?

Most people would be thankful to have a secure well paying job in the post AI blow off; increasingly it's going to harder to differentiate yourself against anyone else using AI. That we have people still in the thick of AI that don't understand that is a strong signal that AI boom is still going to come take some jobs.

If you're in a software related role and AI isn't making you more productive, it's on YOU as a dev to figure things out quickly.

AI is coming for your job so you can either be an AI manager, or you can get managed out for AI.

caveat: This is my take as someone who used to do a lot of hand coding, and now regularly has a small team of AI doing anything that would have normally required mostly brute coding strength but not too much thought; that's facet'ed plots, refactoring libraries, improving pipeline efficiency, adding parallelization where possible, building presentations, adding test coverage.

Also, that spike in 21/22 really did a number on people's expectations. The one constant in this industry is its cyclical nature.

I still kinda want to see this going back to 2000. That must be the biggest tech crash by far. 2008 and 2020 were overall market crashes, but tech was booming.

also getting into plumbing, curious to see what others are doing in this regard.

Jobs are now significantly more demanding too, do more and make less.

For what its worth, I ended up getting a tech job in Japan instead. Ironically, the requirements at U.S. startups are much higher, and U.S. startups fit the stereotype of Japanese work culture more than Japanese companies nowadays.

https://muneebdev.com/software-development-job-market-india-...

"Other professional, scientific, and technical services" grew month over month and year over year

"Information" took a hit, but the bulk of that was "Motion picture and sound recording industries"

"Computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services" modestly shrunk, but "Web search portals, libraries, archives, and other information service" is the only area to grow under information.

This seems different then what the post says. They also said worse then 2008, but didn't post any information. I would imagine the total market was much smaller, so the while total jobs lost was probably smaller, percentage was probably larger. When I started in 2012, tech would take any with a science degree.

I don't understand the job titles being propose in the post, are the using different BLS data then me?

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Be that ideal. The shareholders are counting on you!

The next step is for me to respond with an LLM. Maybe if my LLM is good enough it’ll convince their LLM to skip the interview and just offer me a job.

This chart shows that the rate of year-over-year, month-by-month change is worse than 2020.

But the number of tech jobs has grown by 12% since April of 2020 (2.34M vs. 2.63M). Heck, there are more tech jobs today than at the beginning of 2022 (2.61M), even.

Job market sucks, trend is bad, but post title is a misnomer for what this chart shows.

(Numbers based on a quick grab BLS.gov data of CES6054151101 (Custom Computer Programming Services) + CES5051800001 (Computing Infrastructure Providers, Data Processing & Web Hosting) + CES6054151201 (Computer Systems Design Services)---couldn't find other ones quickly and gave up :))

Could speculate this is likely to be a shift in what gets funded and invested in.

I’ve been looking for work for nearly seven months. I can write low level systems code in C and C++ to web applications in Python and compilers in Haskell. I have tons of industry experience.

Yet most places I apply to ghost me or follow up a month later that the position has been filled.

Companies that have been lying off people claim they are seeing record profits.

It seems like we went from a relatively stable growth to just chaos.

I grinded my 20s away trying to have a successful career and if that just gets pulled out from under me I’ve got absolutely nothing.

Any commentary about tech jobs that does not include the interest rate environment and the massive over hiring that occurred between 2019 and 2022 is borderline dishonest.

Look at federal data of SWE job postings and look at the federal funds rate for the same period. Jobs is giant mountain peaking in ‘22. Interest rate is zero for the pandemic and then spikes right when SWE jobs start to collapse.

Tech hiring is all downstream of interest rates. AI has had almost no impact, at least not yet. (Block layoffs were not AI, look at their stock, they basically can only succeed as a financial company when money is free, very misleading and a convenient excuse for terrible management to now say they need to be “AI native”)

What is software publishers category? As it seems it’s picking up while Computer system design is the largest negative impact.

I would appreciate if there was a better chart explaining sort of roles and locations that had the largest impact

Should be something like tech employment rate of growth is lower than it was in 2008 or 2020.

There are many many more tech workers than at either of those points.

Signal v noise ratio so much higher in hardware, nobody performatively studies mechanical engineering to make $60k in ohio.

The other thing is it's showing first derivative, not absolute numbers, which is a very questionable way to derive "worst employment situation" in a field that has been on world-changing boom over the last 50 years.

I was able to find the following:

- Software Publishers https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU06000005051320001

  - Regional data available only, numerous national statistics are discontinued

  - California region matches up, but places like Boston don't https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU25000005051320001

  - Matches up perfectly, no notes here.

  - However, the graph in the tweet doesn't include the February data (even though it claims "recent") which shows an increase

  - Matches up, but February data isn't in the graph which shows an increase from January

  - Doesn't include January or February 2026 data, doesn't match up with graph in tweet

There are numerous open questions in this analysis which I would need to be addressed before drawing any conclusions. My gut feeling would love to accept it at face value but I never trust my gut.

I haven't heard from a recruiter in probably 6 months. I recently put my feelers out and applied to a handful of positions I was qualified for, and got rejection letters from all of them.

I have no idea about what's coming, but I wouldn't pay a whole lot of attention to people who are looking at the plots of a highly volatile and cyclic industry that goes through constant boom-and-bust cycles, and are trying to position this as proof that AI is or isn't having an impact.

The most recent one few months ago and I passed it with great score, top 5% of candidates etc but that wasn't enough to get me hired.

Terrible market, i'm at my wits end to even how to approach this.

Tech was and still is the easiest way to make 200k base salary, before even thinking about the stock.

We need a reset and anyone who can’t make it can go fill the jobs we need in construction, education, etc.

* Since I hit the pavement in late January, I've tracked 100 job applications

* Of those 100, only 7 have turned into interviews

* Of those seven interviews, 3 turned into second-round

* ~50% of all applications never receive a response

* ~20% of rejections for any reason have the role re-posted within thirty days

* For rejections stating "higher quality applications", that role re-post rate is closer to 50%, suggesting ATS systems culling too many candidates to fill the role or ghost jobs

* Despite my state requiring salary requirements be posted in the JD, only around 70% of postings included what could be considered "reasonable" estimates

* 100% of interviews have been for local employers requiring 3+ days on-site

And now, some observations not captured in the data directly:

* Employers are trying to "under-title" folks; Senior roles want to hire former Leads, and Management roles want next-rung candidates for prior-rung titles (e.g., hiring what should be a Senior Manager for an entry-level management role)

* Employers are also trying to underpay workers by a large margin, especially folks coming from Big Tech ("We don't pay {SV_FIRM} money" while offering salaries below the local 50%ile for the role in question); they're blaming a "surplus of tech talent", which may or may not be true (I lack the data to prove either way)

* The two above points are in conflict, because rent/mortgages in these areas are so steep that even with major lifestyle changes to cut costs, these wages simply aren't survivable for local areas

* "Credential Creep" is back in force: Architect certs required for mid-level engineering roles, buzzwords prioritized over outcomes and achievements, and AI ATS' rejecting qualified candidates flat-out

* College Degrees are relevant again as a means of pruning candidates; fifteen years of experience is irrelevant for a lot of Senior roles if you don't have a BS or Masters, which wasn't the case even last year

* Industry-specialization is also back, even for roles where industry specialization is generally moot or easily picked up (e.g., Corporate IT stuff)

* A significant number (~75-85%) of roles explicitly reject H1B and other visa workers; not a problem for me (Citizen), but this is the worst possible time to be job hunting on a non-LPR status.

And now, my personal experiences:

* There's a very strong attitude of "you're being entitled" when it comes down to salary negotiations, even when you show your math for essentials - and share prior compensation history reflecting the cuts you've already taken since your Big Tech salary to "rejoin the market".

* Employers generally have no clue how expensive it is to live right now, especially in major metros; one such employer who balked at my comp floor genuinely had no clue the median rent was three and a half grand per month.

* Compensation seems particularly tilted towards working couples; as in, neither alone makes enough to survive, and employers assume you have a FTE spouse to shore up finances so they can pay you less

* Employers also don't seem to know what they actually want or need. Specialist Engineer roles (e.g., Cloud Engineer, Network Engineer) cite required experience and expertise with the full technology stack inclusive of ERP and HRIS nowadays, which is something that used to be handled by a specific team for the entirety of my career thus far, even in smaller (<1k) orgs. I've also seen Architect roles demanding Help Desk work, and Software Dev roles who want experience supporting Entra.

* AI does not feature in as many interviews as I would've thought. The few times it does, it's very much a "that's nice, but we're taking a wait and see approach" attitude

* There's a lot of eagerness to hire domestically again (I think even middle managers were tired of outsourcing or offshoring), but a lack of budget to afford domestic talent.

Ultimately, it's pretty bleak - but still better than last year, at least thus far (~300 apps, ~2 companies interviewed with, 1 offer in 2025). AI isn't the value-add I was sold on by career counselors and LinkedIn (huge surprise there /s), and there definitely seems to be the appetite to hire, but not the realism of what to expect or how much it'll cost. I very much view it as a sort of tug-of-war at the moment, between workers who did everything expected of them and have cut to the bone already, and employers who somehow think they can pay <50%ile wages while mandating 4-days on-site in a major metro for experienced talent.

If you're an employer looking to hire, I have some advice:

* Ditch the AI ATS or AI summaries and read resumes, especially if you're requiring local presence.

* Understand what you need (and what that will cost you) before posting the JD

* Understand the local cost of living, and budget accordingly (i.e., if your Senior Engineer can't afford median rent, they're not going to stick around when things improve)

* If you value loyalty and aren't paying TC to afford a median home in the area, then you don't actually value loyalty

* Don't pigeonhole yourself with hyper-specific candidates as a means of winnowing down applicants; that level of specialization will flee the second they get a better offer elsewhere

* Post salaries in the JD, required or not, so you don't waste your time with candidates whose expectations don't align with your budget

---

As I also mentioned, the only way you can survive in American tech at this point is to:

1. Move to a Tier 1 tech hub like the Bay and NYC. If you get laid off, you will probably find another job in a couple of weeks due to the density of employers. Seattle used to be a good option, but WA's norms around noncompete clauses incentivize larger employers which reduces the ability for startups to truly scale.

2. Start coming into the office 2-3 days a week. It's harder to layoff someone you have had beers or coffee with. Worst case, they can refer you to their friends companies if you get laid off

3. Upskill technically. Learn the fundamentals of AI/ML and MLOPs. Agents are basically a semi-nondeterministic SaaS. Understanding how AI/ML works and understanding their benefits and pitfalls make you a much more valuable hire.

4. Upskill professionally. We're not hiring code monkeys for $200K-400K TC. We want Engineers who can communicate business problems into technical requirements. This means also understanding the industry your company is in, how to manage up to leadership, and what are the revenue drivers and cost centers of your employer. Learn how to make a business case for technical issues. If you cannot communicate why refactoring your codebase from Python to Golang would positively impact topline metrics, no one will prioritize it.

5. Live lean, save for a rainy day, and keep your family and friends close. If you're not in a financial position to say "f##k you" you will get f##ked, and strong relationships help you build the support system you need for independence. The reality is the current set of layoffs and work stresses were the norm in the tech industry until 2015-22. We live in a competitive world and complaining on HN does nothing to help your material condition.

[0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47174561

I get rejection for every single position that I apply to. Often I read literally a description of myself in job posting, and it's still "we decided to no move forward".

At the same time, I hire people and see that 8/10 candidates are just trash. Not in the sense they "are not aligned", or "emit wrong vibes", or other bs. They literally can't write a single line of code, on their own laptop, in their own IDE.

Make it make sense.