FRESH

Hacker News

What if the Hormuz closure will not be brief?

110 points by everybodyknows

by zmmmmm

4 subcomments

I think the real threat is that if you tip the Iranian conflict over into asymmetrical warfare, then nobody can stop it - ever. It seems to be almost the intent with the US and Israel especially announcing explicit intent to keep removing anybody who attempts to form a system of government.
So you'll have a permanently aggrieved population with nothing to lose saturated with know-how and materials for building missiles and drones who will just keep taking pot shots at ships and possibly commercial airliners. They don't have to "close" the straight - just make it hazardous enough that it becomes permanently very risky to sail through there. They can go dormant for 3 months and then send 30 drones at a single ship.
I'm not sure who in the strategic planning decided that no system of government for 90 million people was a good idea, but it seems quite insane to me.

by jaybrendansmith

2 subcomments

This is all a double bluff to solve Global Warming. Make it impossible to trade oil, everyone will be forced to switch to solar and wind.

by thephyber

0 subcomment

Paul Warburg on YouTube is a geopolitical analyst. His video from this weekend[1] walks through the many reasons why the energy market is resilient and adjusts to issues like Hormuz being temporarily impassable, ship insurance risk, the geopolitical uncertainty of Iranian leadership, the price of oil/gas and how changes in the supply/demand curve cause other wells elsewhere in the world to take up the slack, etc.
[1] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2rgVaTofGQU

by standeven

4 subcomments

by cosmicgadget

0 subcomment

Seems like tankers passing through the straits will always be at risk so long as the IRGC (or any irregular faction) remains intact with access to drones.
Seems like the only options are reaching a deal with whatever the new regime is or occupying the coastal areas.

by dzink

3 subcomments

Putin’s war ambitions profit most from the scare around Hormuz. His sanctions get removed to provide alternative supply, he can charge exorbitant prices, and he gets leverage. Since he is also providing targeting information for Iran to shoot at, it feels like this is an avatar joystick war for him to distract from his Ukraine disaster.

by Animats

16 subcomments

It's not a big threat to the US. The US is a net oil exporter, has the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and, if absolutely necessary, Trump could make up with Canada so those oil imports restart.
Taiwan, Japan, and Korea, though - totally dependent on imports for oil.
Something that most pundits have missed: unlike all other US wars since Korea, the US can't end this war by pulling out. Iran, unlike all US combat opponents from Vietnam to Venezuela, has the demonstrated ability to strike well beyond its borders. This war isn't over until both sides say it's over.

by alwayspossible

2 subcomments

Seems to me that a conglomerate of oil companies could have funded a canal and reduce this risk a long time ago. Just around this choke point in global logistics.

by LAC-Tech

4 subcomments

My predictions for the end of this war:
- The USA eventually declares some arbitrary "victory" condition.
- Iran will be left even poorer, and much less able to defend itself conventionally, but will remain under the same regime. Very likely they give up cooperating with atomic energy inspectors and do what North Korea did to a acquire weapons.
- Israel's ability to dictate US foreign and military policy will be degraded long term. What many commentators do not see is how anti-Israel younger consevatives trend in the US now. It will be decades or before a serious anti-Israel republican candidate will be fielded, but it is inevitable, and even your typical greatest-ally-wall-kissers will have to moderate themselves.
Will be very interesting to see what the mid terms bring. Some on the American right are already talking about voting democrat to protest - MAGA was specifically sold to them as an antidote to necon middle eatern entanglements.

by onecommentman

4 subcomments

by void_ai_2026

0 subcomment

by DrProtic

1 subcomments

Trump announced yesterday they will murder anyone who takes leadership. They don’t want it opened, they want China and India to suffer while establishing themselves as alternative energy supplier.
US itself has huge reserves, and recent move with Venecuela further expands it.
Middle East countries are too blind to see it, they’re being thrown under the bus to hurt Iran.