look at the chart in the article, then click 5Y on the bottom of the chart.

Click the + sign between the calendar and wrench icon

Type in "US Food inflation". It will overlay the "urea" price with the "US food inflation".

Yes, urea seems to be a leading indicator. It is nothing like in 2022, yet.

1. if you’re a natgas producing country with lots of farms (hi USA and Canada) , your mega farm is probably injecting ammonia directly into soil as its nitrogen source, not urea. Pdf pg10, labelled pg5: https://www.ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfiche/pub...

80-90% of US nitrogen fertilization is ammonia (because it’s almost entirely nitrogen and the rest are bonded to heavier molecules than hydrogen).

Ammonia prices always have big geographic variations because it’s a pain to ship a hazardous gas versus liquids or solids. https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/ammo...

And much of it gets applied in the fall, not spring

2. Nitrogen fertilizer varies by crop. Beans crops (soy, kidney beans, chickpeas) fixate their own nitrogen and have zero/minimal applied. Corn and grains, particularly the higher protein varieties need among the most applied.

3. If you like to eat farmed land animals, you’re going to have a bad time from high fertilizer prices. Of traditional edibles: cattle is going to be the worst impacted. Chicken the least. Pork is in the middle. https://www.pbs.org/wnet/peril-and-promise/2022/03/feed-conv...

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?...

To be clear, the CO2 is captured from the fuel burned in producing the ammonia?

... how much of it?

Worried the administration will use it as an excuse to rollback NOx emissions regulations that mandated DEF usage in diesel engines. They are already not enforcing "deletes" of the emissions systems which is a federal crime.

About half of all fertilizer is artificially created using fossil fuels.

There is no undoing of this price shock because the planting and growing season has already arrived in the Northern Hemisphere.

Expect grains to become more expensive and downstream food products like milk and cheese to increase a lot.