FRESH
Hacker News
Hacker News Hacker News-----
Let's sum up.
1. In his previous term, Trump scuttled a deal that was keeping Iran from developing nuclear weapons, seemingly without reason[1]. There was no evidence Iran wasn't holding up its end of the bargain.
2. In his current term, Trump unilaterally struck Iran with airstrikes to destroy its nuclear program. This he lauded as a great success.
3. Trump unilaterally (i.e. He himself, without congress or any other authority) placed tariffs on practically all of his allies.
4. Trump unilaterally threatened the sovereignty of multiple allies, including a threat to invade Greenland.
5. Trump was warned against invading Iran by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff[2].
6. Trump was warned that Iran might close the straight of Hormuz.[3]
7. Trump was warned Iran might strike back against other Middle East countries harbouring American forces[4].
8. Trump, along with Israel, invaded Iran without informing any other allies. There was no attempt to justify the invasion to the UN or NATO, nor any attempt to form a coalition. Trump openly spurned offers of aid from the UK[5] saying it wasn't necessary. This is just the latest instance of Trump denigrating the contributions of U.S. allies to U.S. wars.
9. Iran closed the straight of Hormuz and attacked regional neighbours harbouring U.S. forces.
10. Although requested, the U.S. Navy refuses to provide escorts for civilian ships hoping to transit the straight[6].
11. Trump calls for allies, like Great Britain, to send ships to perform the escort duties his own Navy can't or won't.
At this point, Trump is clearly responsible for the whole debacle and help isn't coming. He has two choices.
A. Go big. The straight of Hormuz is within drone strike range of all of Iran, so holding a strip of land around Hormuz will accomplish little. Trump would need to begin the ground invasion and occupation of all Iran. Note that Iran has twice the population and four times the land area of Iraq and, unlike either of the Iraq wars, the U.S. does not have a coalition to share the burden. This would ruin American finances for generations.
B. Go home. Call off the war. Pay whatever indemnities Iran demands to reopen the straight. It will almost certainly be far cheaper than continuing the war. This route practically ensures Iran will build nuclear weapons unless an actor with credibility (i.e. Not Trump) steps in and negotiates a new nuclear deal.
What a mess.
_______
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_...
[2]https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0zrwzr519o
[3]https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/five-takeaways-from-ws...
[4]https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-was-warned-l...