by thewileyone
5 subcomments
- It's not much of a mystery. It's pretty apparent what is happening.
by unyttigfjelltol
4 subcomments
- 1. By a show of hands, who was surprised that the cataclysmic warnings of the weekend subsided into talk of diplomacy on Monday?
2. Let’s hypothesize the US gov’t or allies did pre-release this info to traders as a policy tool, inviting them to sell oil profitably, shaping the later price action . In a practical sense they may have brought more speculators to the short side than otherwise would have been there; is that scenario really beyond the pale?
3. News of war and sovereign relations on an international stage necessarily will test the boundaries of traditional law of confidentiality and fair practices.
- The same people will have call options on Friday:
- Pakistan has a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia.
- Saudi Arabia has been attacked.
- Witkoff claims to negotiate with Iranians in Pakistan and Iran denies it. Witkoff has a horrible track record in that either the negotiations fail or are a precursor to attacks.
- What better way to spend time in Pakistan than to recruit a proxy and promise US money to the cash-strapped government?
- (I changed the URL from https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-5... because there doesn't appear to be any readable workaround for the latter)
by balderdash
1 subcomments
- Isn’t this just about the easiest thing to investigate (at least to know the parties n loved and the purported basis for the trade)?
by NegativeLatency
3 subcomments
- Martha Stewart was sent to prison for less
by heyitsmedotjayb
5 subcomments
- I'm not smart enough to understand why - but surely this isn't sustainable? At some point wont the price not reflect the reality of simply not having gas to put in your car? What is going on... The price of oil went down 10% yesterday, opened +0% today and is back to +4%...
by barryfandango
1 subcomments
- Many of us use site analytics software that can watch what our users are doing in our apps. Also, Truth Social has a feature where you can schedule a post (that feature is part of the upgraded "partriot package".) Either one of these features might have the truth social staff getting early access to the president's truuts.
by readitalready
3 subcomments
- It's why WTI crude never exceeds $100/barrel. Every time it gets that high the insider in the administration shorts it and the administration announces a new policy delaying more strikes.
by keeganpoppen
1 subcomments
- is anyone else really starting to get fucking tired of this bullshit? yes, it is not an unprecedented, nor unique, phenomenon, but, like, it just feels so blatant. and i say this as someone who doesn’t reflexively hate everything trump does. i do, of course, dislike most things he does, but i do so in what i consider to be a fairly sympathetic and open-minded way. but this is just, like… kleptocracy, no?
- It's not mystery. Any US military engagement has multiple benefits:
1) direct increase and profit for weapon companies, military contractors and oil people
2) show the world who the boss is and everyone should stay under the wing
3) propagate fear globally and keep people aligned
And this time another one is added
4) shorting and gambling of active politicians having insider knowledge
by fraywing
26 subcomments
- I'm growing pessimistic that this kind of activity + the egregious presidential-level crypto scams will never see justice. What's the path for that, really?
by mikewarot
7 subcomments
- I'm not sure if this is parody or not, but someone admitted to it. These days it wouldn't surprise me if it were this brazen.
https://x.com/gothburz/status/2036413487530831899
by hermitcrab
0 subcomment
- What a massive coincidence!
- "Mystery" doing a whole lot of heavy lifting in that headline
- Were there any moves on Polymarket or other platforms that could have triggered these trades in the "real" market?
- There's no mystery here. His son Oil Barron Trump has been doing the same thing, along with Trump, in the crypto markets and online prediction markets for years now. They've made over a billion easy.
by fallingfrog
0 subcomment
- And who was the person or group who made correct predictions in advance of the announcement? Why not just say who it was?
- > A [whitehouse] spokesman told the Financial Times that it did not "tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge".
So the Trump administration is passing on information for others to profit from in exchange for something else. Totally legal. Right?
by vonneumannstan
1 subcomments
- This administration has taken grift and corruption to a level only seen in banana republics. I seriously don't know how you come back from this. GOP voters seem to be openly cheering it.
by burnt-resistor
0 subcomment
- Prison and recovery of ill-gotten proceeds of crimes for all the crooks and most billionaires who are criminals too.
- Charlie Sykes, a founder of the Bulwark podcast, has a story about it here:
https://charliesykes.substack.com/p/a-vivid-snapshot-of-trum...
Some highlights include a $580 million dollar bet on oil futures 15 minutes before Trump made the announcement of talks with Iran, which the Iranian government denied actually happened.
Naturally, political appointments at the SEC are preventing investigation.
by josefritzishere
0 subcomment
- After a year of frequent insider pump and dump scams, is it too pessemistic to assume this is another one? I'm trying to find something hopeful.
- Well if Democrats ever win, there will be a lot of fine investigations for years ahead.
- It’s almost like turning the president into a monarch by baselessly granting total immunity was a bad idea, foreseeably so.
This is the new normal.
I want people to really think about what’s going on here. $1-2 billion of taxpayer money is being spent every day to literally kill people for stock and futures trades.
And nobody will be punished for this. Anyone who gets a whiff of legal trouble will just buy a person.
At some point this is going to destroy even the appearance of market integrity.
- Just so everyone is aware, Trump mentioned the deal in an interview before his post on TruthSocial. So if you're thinking all the trades that happened just before the TruthSocial post are insider trading maybe the traders where just watching the news.
If i can find a link to the interview i'll come back and edit this post with a link and where it fits in the wsj timeline.
- but the real crime
this war will most certainly still be going on by the end of 2026
and at that point will have cost half a trillion dollars
US oil producers are THRILLED at these prices (as well as Russia)
he can't just end the war, not only his call anymore
if US leaves the strait no oil will ever get through
and there are 150 tankers currently waiting, maybe forever
by renewiltord
0 subcomment
- As Nancy Pelosi says: "We’re a free market economy. They should be able to participate in that."
by chunky1994
1 subcomments
- @dang, this has way more discussion than the previous threa,d but people can't see this because it's a dupe.
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by leontloveless
0 subcomment
- [dead]
- People got exactly what they voted for. It would be hilarious, if it wasn't so serious.
by ChrisArchitect
0 subcomment
- Earlier: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47496508
- [dead]
by wesselbindt
0 subcomment
- Very mysterious
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by ayeshaahmad_w
0 subcomment
- One trade is a coincidence. Tariffs, crypto, Iran talks — each time markets move right before the announcement. That's not coincidence anymore, that's infrastructure.
- At this point, I would rather these people enrich themselves as long as they stop the war, but I am afraid they will continue doing both.
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