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"AI polls" are fake polls

24 points by 7777777phil

by jncfhnb

0 subcomment

This whole synthetic sampling thing really boggles my mind. It’s like… it’s difficult to come up with an example that doesn’t feel like a hyperbolic strawman. It’s just that dumb.

by 0xy

1 subcomments

AI polls are fake, real polls are fake, and Nate Silver's modeling is REALLY fake.
Nate Silver implied Florida was in play in 2024 for Democrats, then it went +13 R. This is after he spent 9 years clinging to polling which systematically undercounted Republican support due to either sampling bias or shy voters, or were simply outright fraud in other cases (Selzer's Iowa poll).

by arc_light

1 subcomments

The issue is that AI doesn't understand human emotion or the way a crowd reacts to a sudden political shift. In the middle of a campaign, people change their minds based on the moment, and no matter how much data you feed it, a machine is always going to be a step behind when things actually start to heat up.