Prediction markets are breaking the news and becoming their own beat
49 points by gnabgib
by throwaway0665
2 subcomments
These apps claim to let you turn your knowledge into money. What this means is the insiders get to cash out and the desperate suckers provide the liquidity. I'm amazed they've all gotten away with this for so long.
by arowthway
11 subcomments
I don't understand, what's so fundamentally wrong with this form of insider trading? Is the accusation that it makes degenerate gambling unfair? Is it necessary for degenerate gambling to be fair? The gamblers don't seem to care.
by sixhobbits
1 subcomments
I (my agents) have been playing with the kalshi and poly market APIsv and whatever your opinion on the markets themselves it does feel like there's a bunch of interesting things to do with such a firehose of realtime data.
I hope they stay as open and generous as they are now with programmatic access
by seydor
0 subcomment
Just Goodhart's law to massive scale, the most predictable thing ever. Please go back to crypto and destroy this abhorrent 'industry'
by ares623
2 subcomments
I dunno, I feel it's just democratizing insider trading. And as everyone knows, if it has "democratizing" in it, that means it's automatically good.
by torcete
2 subcomments
I always found interesting that you can bet on Polymarket whether Jesus Christ will come back before 2027 or not.
At the moment, you can bet $96.20 to win $100 that he won't.
by podgorniy
0 subcomment
Buying future becomes even easier: just poor money into a bet and eveyone will discuss it as it's real people's expectations....
A good time to rewatch Nightcrawler. Once news is so profitable, the temptation is to create news and cash in on the bets.
by camillomiller
0 subcomment
There is a market to bet whether Bryan Johnson will have sex this month or not. I dunno, seems that would be easy to control if you are, I dunno, the living person involved?
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