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Iran war drains US oil stocks to lowest level since 2004

58 points by petethomas

by d4ng

6 subcomments

Everyone’s talking about an oil price spike if stocks are depleted, but the heavy backwardation of crude oil futures tells a completely different story. Who is right? Are crude oil traders, who I’m sure know exactly how much remains in reserve, on Chinese fentanyl, or is something else going on?
There was a press release by Exxon a couple of days ago with claims of prices hitting 150.
People have been making similar claims for months, but it hasn’t happened. The forward curve has been backwardated for quite a while now.
Is it Exxon doing a please buy our oil while it’s high, or is something else going on? Pray tell.

by golden-face

2 subcomments

Something definitely seems rotten in The Kingdom of Denmark with respect to the price of oil but I guess the market knows best. What that knowledge is, I don't know.
If anything it's surprising the price of natural gas hasn't gone higher considering ~20% of the supply is going to be inconsistent for 2+ years.

by anovikov

2 subcomments

Why are stocks relevant at all if the US is the largest producer and a 3rd largest net exporter? It's not like there's any chance that there will be oil shortage in US.