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What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?

41 points by Konichivalue

by theturtlemoves

4 subcomments

You know, many eastern countries apparently intuitively think in cycles. The west tends to think linearly: "We're trending upwards, argh argh overpopulation, famine, death. We're trending downwards, argh argh population collapse, famine, death".
Same with the perception of time. My country sees time as a line. I once had an interesting training where the instructor pointed this out. She went on to say that seeing time as a circle or a point is also an option. It wasn't until I hit the second half of life that I got a glimpse of what that looks like, personally.
Perhaps subconsciously, Japan envisions that the birth rate will go up again sometime in the future and they will have preserved their identity and culture from which to build again.

by eska

8 subcomments

There is no “zero” immigration policy, this is a strawman. Controlled immigration is different from opening the floodgates.
Also weird to admit that no country has reversed its birth rate problem, but still insist upon massive immigration being the solution.

by skeledrew

1 subcomments

Neither immigrants nor robots will prevent them from becoming essentially extinct as an ethno-national group if they don't do something serious to stimulate the fertility rate. They need to find the root of why Japanese aren't having kids and resolve it.
I'd say it's due primarily to the collision of their values with Western values, particularly concerning family and workplace roles. The core issue is actually being faced by all developed nations, but it hits Japan really hard due to their immigration stance as well as lack of natural resources (they need to excel in providing globally scoped services).

by seandoe

3 subcomments

Make having kids a zero-cost endeavor. If that doesn't do it, make it a profitable one. It's as simple as that.

by Insanity

1 subcomments

Necessity is the mother of innovation. I guess they’re pretty optimistic that they can automate away the humans needed to sustain an aging population.
Not a bet I would be willing to take though lol.

by chainmail2029

1 subcomments

>But a strict zero-immigration policy collides with one terrifying reality: No country in history has successfully reversed a falling fertility rate, and Japan shows zero signs of breaking that trend.
Wrong! Korea has successfully reversed theirs starting this year due to some extreme policies benefiting families with children
[1] https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2026-05-27/nationa... [2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/25/south-korea-bi...

by anovikov

0 subcomment

I am not at all concerned about this problem. At this point, society mostly need people as consumers, so quality is not as important as it used to be (in democratic countries it's a bit more complicated because people vote - but this is solvable too).
Because there are no resource or technology constraints that prevent solving it, just regulatory concerns, and because regulatory concerns are easy to solve in unfree countries almost by definition, and because unfree countries face this problem to a larger degree than free ones so will be also forced to act sooner, and because once they figure the solution it will become imperative for all other countries to do the same or quickly cease to exist so regulatory concerns will be quickly overcome - there is really no way this won't be satisfactorily solved.

by kibwen

0 subcomment

> The industry is shifting from rigid industrial arms to general-purpose robots powered by advanced AI
It is not, if by "general-purpose robots" we mean humanoid robots, and by "AI" we mean LLMs. Factories will continue to be designed around robots that are designed for specific purposes and controlled by normal, predictable software.

by cwyers

6 subcomments

I am really shocked at the tone of so many of the comments here. Did HN become a breeding ground for xenophobia at some point? Has it always been that and is it just way more mask off now?

by mieses

0 subcomment

as long as 2 people remain it will work out. the mindset can evolve in a crisis.

by ares623

6 subcomments

Everyone keeps talking "more babies. more immigration". what about "less old people" (this is a joke but I am curious if that has ever come up?)

by jojobas

6 subcomments

Whatever the answer to people having fewer kids is, it's not "cede your land to some other people who will".
Japan's population around 1900 was mere 43 million people - when most of them were required to work the fields.
Japan will be fine. Europe, on the other hand...

by SV_BubbleTime

12 subcomments

They’ll find it easy to keep their homogenous culture and shared traditional values.
Why would the solution to “our people aren’t having enough babies” be “we should import different people to have their babies here”?
Why does ever single bleeding heart liberal globalist try and ignore the deep psychological truths about human tribalism? It’s not even a bad thing, but even if it was, it’s a fact.

by fleroviumna

0 subcomment

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by coastalredneck

0 subcomment

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by indiandeodorant

1 subcomments

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by jesterson

3 subcomments

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by snambi

0 subcomment

It's perfectly natural for a country to experience periods of growth and decline. Demographic and economic cycles rise and fall over time, and a period of contraction does not mean growth won't return in the future.
What isn't reversible is losing a country's identity. As a foreigner, I'd rather see Japan remain Japan than become a messy cultural mix, like Europe.