Whether it can physically be as all encompassing as it makes itself out to be or whether it will just be healthily profitable remains to be seen. Kind of like how Uber went from "We'll autonomously drive the world" to "Look, we deliver food, goods, and people to locations and we figured out how to do that in a way that makes profits. Also, ads".

So everything else is kind of academic. Of course they were losing money in 2025, they had a technology that was kind of cool - clearly eventually going to deliver something great, but they didn't actually have anything somebody should pay for. Now they have a thing that people will pay for. So who cares what they lost in 2025?

So what's important today is - how competitive are they with Anthropic in delivering that product. How do the economics of companies using AI agents for coding work. That's all. I don't think there's really an argument about them losing money on inference any more.

Operating loss went from ~$8.8B to ~$20.9B — roughly 2.4x.

Doesn't seem like a domesday scenario.

When I read "the worst possible thing for me to get" I had assumed it would be evidence that inference/Codex is fundamentally unprofitable (as Ed often blogs about) but there isn't enough information here to support that argument either: revenue is still greater than cost of revenue, and the major losses are clearly delineated.

> As OpenAI’s worth rose, the increased value of those investor rights created a roughly $30bn charge, added the person. The charge is not expected to recur following the restructuring, they said.

> Stripping out the charge and other non-cash expenses, such as stock-based compensation of staff and computing credits from Microsoft, OpenAI’s losses were $8bn, according to the person.

People ignore all his horrendous takes from last year and still eat this years “analyses” like it’s Gods words.

He has been predicting the doom for years and years now and it is strange to see HN still putting credence here.

This is what he said around a week back

“ One of my sources has come forward and brought me a story that will possibly burst the AI bubble. The reason they brought this to me is that I’ve shown — and will continue to show — that I actually give a shit about this industry and the people in it.

If you’re wondering what the story is, know that it’s the information I’ve wanted for years, delivered as I have always wanted it, and I will treat it with the reverence it deserves. Imagine what the worst possible thing for me to get would be and you’re probably close.

I expect it to be out in the next two weeks, and you’ll know exactly when it runs. There’ll be a podcast and a newsletter, and very likely follow-on coverage elsewhere.

I can guarantee you it’ll be worth it, and you’ll be stunned by what I report.”

This is qanon tier stuff. He’s been pulling this shtick for a while and people still haven’t caught on.

That ship has sailed long ago into the IPO sunset.