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Treasury Has an Internal Report Warning About the Dangers of an AI Bubble

44 points by petethomas

by retrochameleon

0 subcomment

This feels like an attempted primer and justification for major bailouts to the big AI companies. And this is all a problem that the companies have created for themselves by going so hard into AI investments based on wild speculation about the near future of AI. And the bailouts will probably happen because A: these companies have politicians in their pocket, and B: most of the government / politicians will frame this as a national security problem we can't afford to ignore. This all serves to entrench and centralize power and access to data for the major AI companies that managed to stay in the game up to this point.

by mcswell

4 subcomments

I keep wondering why the US claims it needs to keep ahead of China, lest all be lost. This is not a zero sum game, and the difference between first and second place seems likely to be a few months at most. A few month lead doesn't seem to me like that much of an advantage, even if it is maintained over years (which is not a given, the lead could go back and forth). And finally, this is not a race with a single goal (like landing the first man on the Moon). One side could be ahead with regard to, say, math proofs, while the other side could be ahead with chemistry applications or something.

by 1970-01-01

0 subcomment

>set to warn of the risks posed by the artificial intelligence market
Nuanced, but the title doesn't match the article. All markets are risky, but not all markets are dangerous. All things considered, a bubble popper resulting in slower growth (as stated in the article) is a risk that is not dangerous.

by CGMthrowaway

0 subcomment

I would be more surprised if they DIDN'T have anyone assessing the risk of an AI bubble. The report deals with characterizing how deeply embedded in the broader economy AI companies are, and the risks of heavy infrastructure investment, concentrated market power, reliance on private financing and potential shocks like supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions and electricity shortages. What is the issue (if any)?

by blitzar

1 subcomments

by therobots927

3 subcomments

No doubt this will be used to justify a government-funded capital lifeline to OAI and Anthropic who are still bleeding cash (irrespective of whether inference is profitable) and may have issues raising more money in the private markets if they are signaling a delayed IPO.
The proposed “donation” of a 5% stake to a sovereign wealth fund creates a direct incentive for government cash infusion.
I really can’t begin to describe how angry this possibility makes me. And I don’t think I’m alone. Keep pushing the envelope Sam / Dario and see what it gets you. Doubling down on a losing bet just digs your hole deeper.
What happens when the government sinks half a trillion dollars into this and we still don’t see an ROI / true agent autonomy? Then what? Ask for another trillion dollars and hope you can stumble on a research breakthrough equally as revolutionary as the transformer?